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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (712)	10/12/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 4474

Gotta learn how to trade in the pre-open market. They were giving away dollars. Credit? How many shares will that toxic convert to? Sufficient data is in hand now? Get Zeev! - g -

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (712)	10/12/1999 9:53:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

Maybe this will be a catalyst for third- and nth-tiers. They are still absurdly disounted. Take a look at CMDX and try not to puke.

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (712)	10/12/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 4474

>> Who would have thought? << That's twice what I had estimated, plus the preferred shares.

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (712)	10/22/1999 3:37:00 AM
From: hillary kapan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

Essay d'Argent With a couple years of cash and the weight of the genomics center lifted, whatta we gotta? A leaking toxic, soon to go bye-bye. Den whatta we gotta? Extremely interesting technology for free. But it's no Nettie, so it sells for say, one-hundredth the price of Nettie and her friends. 1/100th! Exqueeze me world, the virtual seems cool, but y'all still have bodies that get messed-up. And compared to Amazon, we're closer to 1/1000th. That line gets stuck between my bad molar and the worse one next to it. I gotta floss. Speculation: Berger knows he's got hot-fig technology. Knows it too well. Too proud perhaps. But to the outside world (read: pharma) it's just another pipeline dream. So potential deal after deal has fallen through due to a mismatch of evaluations. Bergie's and Pharmie's. And Berger hurled with the signing of the death spiral a year ago... But now we have a new situation. As has been pointed out, a much better cash position obviously affords bargaining power. And I'm gonna go out on a big oak branch: Berger will partner some small bit of ARGENT, etc. That will improve his position vis-a-vis the Potentata, and he can go for plus d'argent on successive deals. As bottom-line health improves, and clinicals progress, partnerships will reflect more generous risk-reward assesments. 'Course, Bergie may continue to ask too much for Ariad's technologies. That wouldn't be pretty for us. So how do we value ARIA? How about like a race horse. What are the odds of success in Argent or the related diabetes work? One in a hundred? That's what the market believes, apparently. Is it absurd speculation to place odds? No. I think it's appropriate speculation. What are the odds, guys? How long will it take to get to a billion dollars in revs, if we look at a success-scenario? A couple other factors in hand, and we dang got ourselves a consensus opinion. I wanna see odds. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen... Hillary I need a new brain.