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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Banana who wrote (30555)	10/12/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: Gerald Walls	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

T2, I know you follow INTC (at least used to). It gapped up this morning on some heavy volume. Any news that you've heard? NVLS (semi equip maker) blew out earnings, implying that the chip companies are buying more equipment to keep up with demand. INTC reports tonight.

To: Jack Banana who wrote (30555)	10/12/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

OT Jack, It is basically a fight between the bulls and bears on Intel. It has been all over the place. I saw Ashok Kumar on CNBC this morning naming Intel as one his few favorites ( in addition to Dell, QLGC, CNXT). His take was that Intel should really do well in the first half of next year. For the balance of the year, he did not make any great price move predictions. Of course that means this year is the buying opportunity. How long would big buyers want to wait before increasing position (or taking new positions) on Intel if the prospects going into next year are pretty good. The earthquake and rambus problems might keep the price low but that really depends upon what Intel management has to say about these issues. I don't really think it will be a matter of EPS. It will center on their forward looking statements. My guess is that they will be generally positive. If that turns out to be true, I won't really care if they miss earnings by a cent or two. Remember last quarter--the stock took off after they missed numbers!! I have some trading position in Intel that i hope to dump but plan to keep my core holdings. It is also the October uncertainty combined with the bonds that will make it difficult for it break out to new highs---but come November or December they should do it----I HOPE!! My hope is that it breaks past 80----if that happens we could see a surge higher during the day. It does not look good for such a move at this point but it will depend a lot upon how much the shorts get scared and how low the mutual funds want to wait before buying. My hope is that the shorts will panic near the end of the day but October is usually their time and they may be more courageous. I can 't really make up my mind on this one----for the short term. Longer term, these are bargain prices. Good Luck. BTW--As Gerald pointed out, we got good numbers from Novellus yesterday---I hope that results in a late day rally as well ahead of the earnings.