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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Wells who wrote (80257)	10/12/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<Robert - since June, my stock portfolio is up about 12%. About 90% of my gains since that time have been made from shorting stocks. 12% is probably not that spectacular when compared to the returns of some on this thread. > Yes, I would guess that many on this thread, myself included, have done better than that. Which is not to disparage your gain, as the timeframe is short. Different trading styles work best in different market environments. However, as Glenn and HJ have learned (correct me if wrong, guys), during bull runs, going long works best. And since August, we have been in a bull run. Of course, that is 20-20 hindsight. So that fact in and of itself does not put your current investment style (shorting) in question. <If anything, through my posts, I would like to think that I can prevent happening to others what happened to me in April. I bought YHOO at 220 and AOL at 160 - at a time of extreme exuberance and bullishness, when analysts were saying YHOO was going to 300 and AOL was going to 200. While I had held off in investing in the internets up until that time, I finally succumbed to greed and gave into the fear of missing out and bought - at exactly the wrong time. And I can't bear to buy and hold as I watch my portfolio decrease by more than 10% within a matter of a week or two - and so I sold shortly thereafter (and I'm glad I did). So in my posts, I try to make others aware that these stocks are volatile - that while others are predicting that they will continue to go up, I try to point out that they may not - that there are aspects of the business models of some of these companies that are questionable. > Another approach is to use some rudimentary TA to time the market. Throughout the decline from April-July, TA indicated the writing was on the wall. Personally, I chose to ignore that writing for a while (tax reasons), and lived to regret that decision. Being in different financial circumstances, William chose to hold throughout that period. Regardless, I (and I believe William) would say that your losses in AOL and YHOO in April had more to do with TA than FA. I try to use FA to select the investment vehicle; I try to use TA to select my entry and exit points. <But I would not think that you would go so far as to say that because I am not a bull that I should not post. Would you?> Post all you want - I just think you are now focusing on the wrong issues. Yes these stocks are volatile, and may not be everyone's investment cup of tea. However, fundamentally, the Internet Revolution is restructuring every corner of our economy, and presenting historic investment opportunities in the process. Of course, with those opportunities come the market excesses of which we are all familiar. But those market excesses do not affect much the underlying fundamentals. And TA can be used to limit the vagaries of those market excesses. All I am saying is this: don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Rob