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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (89866)	10/12/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Robert - Re: "One more thing, I never felt that it was AMD's goal to reach mid-20's profitability. I always thought their raison d'ˆtre was to stop INTC from having these margins. This is a crusade not an investment." SUPERB ANALYSIS ! Thanks for posting it. Paul

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (89866)	10/12/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: vince doran	Respond to of 186894

Robert - Completely agree that profits are the only line that matters. Do not have enough info to comment on the crusade aspect of business approach, however, the effective model for the next year seems predictable to me, so I don't really care how they got there. On margins I think the AMD trend looks good. Do you think Athlon volumes or yields will decline in the next nine months? R&D: yes, Intel spends more. AMD, on the other hand, has the superior chip currently in the market. How can this be? As for the long-term impact of Intel's spending, I must say that I don't consider AMD a long-term investment, and think their 64 bit strategy foredoomed EXCEPT that I expect the 32 bit world to remain huge for some years, and I think there is a real possibility that AMD can retain the performance title in that arena. If they can there is plenty of money to be made there. MG&A: Again an argument that presumes continued smallness. Debt: Important in breakup value calculation, unimportant on the flipside. As always, nice to be rich. Diversification: Only important if required for profitability, which we know it is not, also note the % of Intel's profits coming from CPUs. Market value: Yes, Intel has earned the respect it receives. And AMD has earned its disrespect. And for those parts of Mr. Market taking the calm, long-term, ignore-the-crowd, wait-for-established-profits approach AMD is certain to remain unappealing for the next year. You may have noticed, however, that there are other parts of Mr. Market. If AMD suddenly begins to coin money by mid-2000, even if the future after Q4 is completely cloudy, do you think the stock will move or not? History is a fine textbook, but it is a lousy predictor of the future. Vince