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To: zsteve who wrote (49201)	10/12/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

The Rocky DRAM Roadmap: PC and Price Trends PHOENIX--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 12, 1999--Revenue relief arrived for DRAM vendors in 3Q99 and is forecast to continue through 2000, according to a new study published by Semico Research Corp., The Rocky DRAM Roadmap: PC and Price Trends. DRAM vendors will struggle in the next few months with allocation as they try to increase production without adding new fabs. By the second half of 2000, Semico expects to see new fab announcements. Second quarter saw the first push-out of the Camino chipset/DRDRAM (direct Rambus DRAM) devices. Third quarter moved to the 128-megabit DRAM as supply of that density soared. Demand for sub-$1000 PCs continued to grow. The memory size increased from 32 megabytes to 64 megabytes in the sub-$1000 PC segment. Even with rapidly rising ASPs, 64 megabytes should remain the standard size for that high volume segment. The DRAM revenue forecast of $18.9 million -- a growth of 34.6 percent -- has a realistic upside this year. ASPs have been climbing since July. The recent tragic earthquake in Taiwan has caused concern about supply even though Taiwan ships less than 10 percent of units worldwide. As always, it is ASPs driving the total revenue. The fate of RDRAM is yet to be determined. Chipset availability is the key issue controlling usage of these different DRAM types. Semico views SDRAM 133MHz, then DDR DRAM as the logical progression after SDRAM PC100MHz. Intel is supporting the RDRAM with both a chipset and investment in DRAM companies to encourage its adoption. Additionally, OEMs are being 'gently' reminded about the source of the processor used in most PCs. Intel did concede that it would have a PC133 chipset in 2000. With recent events, Semico would not be surprised to see a PC133 chipset from Intel in 1999. Semico believes the RDRAM will serve a niche market. The PC price points are important to the DRAM market since they will drive the types of DRAMs. The low end of the PC market will consume the least expensive DRAM. The high end of the market is where the more expensive products, such as RDRAM and DDR DRAM, will be introduced. Semico believes the SDRAM will continue to be the mainstay of the market. RDRAM, when available, is expected to be used in the very high end desktop. DDR DRAM is expected to be the evolutionary replacement for SDRAM. The study, ''The Rocky DRAM Roadmap: PC and Price Trends,'' is available for immediate shipment. The list price is $3,500. Semico Research Corp. is a leader in providing semiconductor market analysis, research and custom consulting. Its headquarters are in Phoenix, with offices in northern California and Boston as well as in Europe and in Japan. Other products and services are available at the Semico Research Corp. Web site, www.semico.com. biz.yahoo.com