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To: Robert Rose who wrote (80326)10/12/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
No. I think it's too early to move from internet stocks to biotech. I think we're in the second inning of the Internet move.

That's what I mean by being careful of incrementalism. Incrementalism can really hurt performance. Even though these two new stocks have had big moves, they could digest these gains for some time. I just don't know...that's why I took a small stake. They're only 2% of my portfolio today.



To: Robert Rose who wrote (80326)10/12/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: Tom D  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Beware Biotech. It is certainly an out-of-favor sector.

I invested heavily in Biotech before I did Internet stocks, (recall that I have a medical and biotech consulting background) and I sustained breath-taking losses. In retrospect, I wish I had just thrown my money into the garbage can. It would have been much easier emotionally, than the drip drip water torture of mounting biotech losses.

It appears that biotech device companies may be the only exception, since their regulatory approval is so much briefer.

A contrarian would argue that you can buy promising companies like MCDE at venture capital prices. I also cannot take NFLD off my watch list--it is too promising. But the thing about MCDE and NFLD is that they are screaming buys, just like they were 12 months ago, and 24 months ago...and their stock prices don't budge.

I think B2B eCommerce will outperform Biotech in 2000.

I am happy that I had two very green stocks on my screen today: my B2B software stocks, EPNY and CLIC. Their gains easily made up for my other holdings (VRTS, VERT, and SFE).

I am currently 70% cash. I am probably going to put 10% of my portfolio into TIFQX and another 10% into the Ryan Jacobs Internet fund when it launches later this month. And I am also going to put half of the portfolio with a professional money manager at Smith Barney, so I am 50% internets, and 50% diversified conventional investing.

Tom