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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla Game Investing in the eWorld -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (437)	10/12/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: pala	Respond to of 1817

Bruce; Ariba-i2 Relationship My take on Ariba and I'm oversimplifying here is that it is a portal for B2B. It seems to be working on general business items, for now. ie those items all or most businesses use travel, expense acct's, computers, consulting services. Am I close here? And their stickyness will be networking and scale, ala AOL, Yhoo! and others. Once you hit that critcal mass you get very sticky. If this is right and its happening so fast suppliers will jump in ala B2C and try to get an early mover advantage without prepareing their back end to handle it. How can they even know how to prepare other than small tweaks of thier current business model? I'm of to the Ariba site to prepare my case, who knows maybe I'll buy some if I can find the $$$. thanks Doug

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (437)	10/13/1999 12:54:00 AM
From: pala	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1817

Bruce; Here's some of that PAIN I was talking about <<<``Using i2's solutions, Barnes & Noble will ensure that customers consistently receive their orders at the time promised. i2 demand management solutions will anticipate customer needs by accurately predicting customer demand. Distribution will be integrated with these demand-planning systems to ensure that they are adequately stocked to match consumer needs. Based on current stock levels and transportation constraints, order promising systems will strengthen Barnes & Noble's ability to inform customers as to when their order will be received. Transportation optimization solutions provided by i2 will help to ensure that products are delivered when promised. All of these systems will work in concert to provide Barnes & Noble the ability to maintain optimum stock levels based on need and to reduce costs associated with potential over- or under-stocking. These systems will be implemented early next year>>>. Barnes and Nobel wants thier customers to actually "RECIEVE THIER ORDER". REMEMBER EVERYBODY WAITING FOR THEIR NFM so they could RTFNM. Thats the deal in a nutshell. If you look back a year or so at Amazon. com and Wal-Mart news you'll see that Wal-Mart was sueing Amazon for hiring their Supply Chain guys and so stealing trade secrets. Both firms have spent a FORTUNE perfecting their business models along these lines. I'll post here again some Home Depot numbers to show what this business model can do. Remember that Dell was also an early i2 adopter!! HD owns and operates 846 do-it-yourself warehouse retail stores offering building materials, home improvement products and related furnishings. For the 26 weeks ended 8/1/99, net sales rose 27% to $19.38 billion. Net income rose 45% to $1.17 billion. Results reflect a 10% rise in comparable-store sales, the net additions of 167 new stores since the prior period, higher gross margins, greater employee productivity, and decreased S/G/A as a percentage of revenues. OK Yahoo! gives Home Depot a p/e of 57 msft p/e 66 intc p/e 36 itwo p/e 156 oooops My point is that this business model can put a company selling building supplies to homeowners a Gorilla valuation. And i2 is starting to outsource a thing that cost the early movers a fortune to put together with best of breed and home grown software. Was it Barnes and Nobel or Borders that had to sell off a big chunk of their internet effort? I can't recall, but it was dragging their brick and morter stock price down and they couldn't IPO because of market conditions. PAIN the big motivator of the herd. To early to tell if i2 can establish its self as the standard but its got a great shot, and if it does watch out above. Enjoy Doug