North Korea Eyeing Hong Kong Reintegration Plan
Summary:
North Korea indicated its interest in China's one-country,
two-systems model used in the reunification with Hong Kong as a
possible model for the Korean Peninsula, according to an Oct. 10
Hong Kong Sunday Morning Post report. In light of recent diplomatic
initiatives by North Korea and the easing of U.S. sanctions, North
Korea's proposal presents an interesting approach toward
reunification. Although the one-country, two-system plan works for
Hong Kong and China - at least in theory - the split between North
and South Korea is of a very different nature, making the
possibility of this solution slight.
Analysis:
North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun, speaking at a recent
meeting on the sideline of the U.N. General Assembly session in New
York, said that North Korea had been watching the implementation of
the one-country, two-systems plan under which Hong Kong was
reunited with China. He added that Pyongyang was considering it as
a model for Korean reunification. Paek's comments follow a series
of North Korean diplomatic overtures around the world. In light of
this, the one-country, two-system approach to Korean unification is
intriguing. However, there are fundamental differences between the
situation in China and that on the Korean Peninsula, making the
proposal, no matter how interesting, a starting point rather than a
solution.
The idea of a one-country, two-system plan for reunification of the
Koreas, raised at a time of increased North Korean diplomatic
activity, will create new openings for inter-Korean dialogue. North
Korea has consistently expressed its opposition to South Korea's
Sunshine Policy of constructive engagement, calling it an attempt
by the South to export its cultural system to the North and
eventually assimilate the North. However, Paek's proposal forwards
what essentially amounts to an advanced state of Sunshine Policy as
a model for inter-Korean unification.
While the one-country, two-systems reintegration of Hong Kong with
China ostensibly allowed Hong Kong to maintain its own local
economic and political system, in reality it has slowly been
acquiescing to China's wishes. With the extreme differences between
South Korea and North Korea's foreign policies, it is unlikely they
would find common ground under such a plan. One side would be
coerced into accepting the will of the other in order to present a
unified political and economic front to the world, and the North is
far more likely to be subsumed than the South.
Aside from the internal ideological differences, any reunification
plan acceptable to the North would require the withdrawal of U.S.
troops from the Korean Peninsula. A reunified Korea would
technically no longer present a threat to U.S. interests, making
obsolete the reasons for stationing troops there. Yet, the United
States is committed to maintaining a large-scale military presence
in Asia, a third of which is currently stationed in Korea.
Despite warming relations between North Korea and the United
States, as evidenced by the recent easing of sanctions, there is
nothing to suggest that the United States is considering the
possibility of removing its troops. William Perry, coordinator of
U.S.-Korean policy, is convinced of the need to maintain U.S.
military presence on the peninsula. While the United States is
interested in a stable Korean peninsula, it may not be convinced
that a one-country, two-system plan would provide enough of a
stabilizing effect to justify the removal of U.S. forces. As well,
there are other strategic concerns in the region, such as China,
that determine U.S. troop deployment.
While North Korea's unofficial proposal does not mean a
reunification of Korea is beginning, it does present a point of
reference for future talks. As with the Sunshine Policy, it
suggests a gradual merging of the two Koreas. However, unlike the
Sunshine Policy, the North Korean proposal would necessarily
require rethinking both nations' foreign relations, as part of a
true reunification into one country. While there would be much to
resolve in implementing such a program, it does represent progress
in North Korean attempts to move away from rogue state status and
into the international diplomatic arena.
(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.
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