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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (52891)	10/13/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Winkman777	Respond to of 95453

Average of last 2 weeks = (1 -7)/2 = 3.5 as you expected. IMO both last and this weeks API crude #'s were somewhat aberrant. But the long term trend (average) is about -3/week (August through today). IMHO buying OSS or E$P's here is probably good for a short term trade and almost for sure as a longer term investment. Good luck. Winkman

To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (52891)	10/13/1999 1:18:00 AM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

API's - What's going on? How can we be up 1 million barrels last week and down 7 million barrels this week? Brent, if this country was self-sufficient in petroleum, the decline might be very orderly but since we import more than 50%, you have to expect a lot of variance week-to-week simply due to tanker traffic and schedules which, in many cases, were set months ago. If imports are down, it probably says more about world S/D than domestic S/D. I think reduced imports could be because the narrow premium of WTI over Brent makes it currently uneconomical to bring North Sea oil here when transportation costs are added on. I think API fluctuations may be mostly due to import fluctuations since domestic supply and domestic demand are stable to slowly trending up. Look at the situation in PADD 5. Their crude stocks were up this week. Does this mean that west coast demand has collapsed? Hardly..if you drive the freeways every day. <vbg> Probably due to a few extra VLCC's coming down from Valdez or some imports coming in from Central America or Indonesia to west coast ports in reaction to high local prices. Crude follows the money. JMO. John