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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (42831)	10/13/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: Gary H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116766

Jim, I have always understood that gold gains more in a recession then during an inflation. Can anyone confirm this?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (42831)	10/13/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116766

JimMcMannisRE:"Most bull markets are toppled by unpredictable events." I am saying that the rise of gold was unpredicted. Or, that it will topple this market directly. What I am saying is that as gold and the POG move up, gold will start regaining it's previous stature as one of the barometers of inflation and it will be harder to start printiing more dollars and asking foreign countries to exchange that paper with their hard earned goods. So gold will be the symbol if you wish of the need to return to a better measure of reality for this stock market than indefinite growth at 35%/year through mathematical mumbo-jumbo ( Myron S.Scholes new formula to calculate derivatives with it's subsequent LTCM and Asia '98debacle,stocks with PEs of 1000 and similar PEG's, etc etc ) <vbg>. TA </Message #42831 from Jim McMannis at Oct 13 1999 3:04AM TA, RE:"Again, most bull markets are toppled by unpredictable events events. I dare say that the rise of the POG to where it will threaten US$ hegemony was totally unpredicted"... The rise in gold is too easily explained to have a direct effect on our market. It would have begun to rise long ago had it not been for excessive CB selling. I can't equate the coming correction in the markets as directly linked to the POG at this time. I do know that it's a crap shoot whether the POG will go up if the general market tanks. Might as well throw in Pakistan. The dollar might tank some but eventually will get rescued. I remember in '87 when the market crashed, AG stepped in and bought treasuries. The contract was lock limit up for three days. That helped the dollar I think. Signs of inflation have been there since June....that's now hurting some of the DOW stocks. Intel missed its number and that coupled with techstocks being overbought will hurt the Nasdaq tomorrow. Intel already down 6 in after market trading. I don't feel bad about holding gold right now. Y2K will likely temper any new highs in the market through the rest of the year. A Y2k caused recession may put an end to any inflationary spiral but that will occur next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the DOW und 10k between now and then. As a matter of fact, I expect it. Probably, a further dip after 1/1/2000 if the problems expected occur. I don't want to hold gold going into a recession so there may be an exit point in the next few months. JimI>