To: Serendipity who wrote (7830 ) 10/13/1999 12:49:00 PM From: Rocket Scientist Respond to of 29987
Pooky, I wouldn't advise you or any investor to take on faith the company's oft-repeated estimate that 30-50M people need and can afford to pay for G*-like service. And you're certainly free to disbelieve BLS when he says that his 223 distributors, with over 100M current subscribers, tell him to expect G* subscriber counts in excess of 1M by end of next year. But I don't think you've articulated a countering view very well. If we accept as undisputed that 2-3B people live in areas not served by wireless, and badly served by wired telephony, it's pretty easy for me to believe that 30-50M people can be found that need and can afford G*. First, there are always a small fraction of non-poor people living in "poor" areas. In the US, think of all the Robert Redford wannabees living on ranchettes in Montana. In the third world, every little village will have its local big shots (how did you imagine that the rest of the population came to be so poor?) and micro businesses. Second, the 2-3 B people live within political boundaries... they have governments that provide law enforcement, military and social services, employees of which can well afford G*. Third, they live in areas with natural resource and transportation industries, employees of which can well afford G*. Fourth, they live in areas attractive to first world recreational visitors, some of whom will wish to stay in touch for safety or personal reasons. Fifth, they have family members that have migrated to cities and are no longer "poor." There's probably a sixth, seventh and etc class of user, but the above are enough for me.