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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (75353)	10/13/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572872

Kash, <Apparently Ashok (who hates AMD but seems to have pretty good Intel sources) estimated sales of 30M CPU's and ASPs down to $185.> Niles said the quarter was at 30Mu and went down to 28Mu after some backlog cancellations. The quarter numbers suggest something close to 30Mu and Ashok is saying the same. Bryant refuses to give specific guidance for growth of Q3 over Q4 (last quarter's guidance was far more specific if I recall - he said something like "look at the historic pattern" this time when someone gave a historic pattern of ~13% growth, Bryant wouldn't want anything to do with that other than say it will be better than 7% seen from Q2-Q3). From my experience, a lot of these things are pointing to a pull-in. <Looking forward I suspect that this quarter will be very tough and will depend largely on how much coppermine ASP and volumes offset the continuing price drops. Originally coppermine was expected to be 4M units in Q4 - they will have to ramp much more than this to beat the $0.65 cent plus expectations for Q4.> I think the jeopardy for Intel is that the market stays with the 500MHz PIII-speed grade inspite of their efforts to move it to CuMine. I don't know if many corporations will pickup CuMines this quarter. That leaves the consumer market to absorb ~5 Mu of high-end product (between Athlons and CuMines). That to me seems to be a tall order. The worst case scenario would be if Intel is selling mostly Celerons and PIIIs below the 550MHz speed grade. I have a feeling that's where they are headed but it is too early to tell. <I would not underestimate these guys, but it seems like a tall order.> Agreed! Chuck P.S.: Right now, I am neither long nor short Intel so all I care for is if AMD can ship beaucoup Athlons.

To: kash johal who wrote (75353)	10/13/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572872

<Frankly if the Flash had not being kicking butt the miss would have been much worse as well as earnings contributions from the acquisitions> Actually, there was a ominous sign for the flash industry in this conf call. Paul O said Intel will be moving the capacity freed-up by 0.18 migration of the CPU biz to Flash. Given everyone and their brother are increasing their flash wafer starts, I think excess capacity is probably no more than a year away. It may not be a bad idea for AMD sell or spinoff the flash division in Q1 (assuming they do solidly on the Athlon front).