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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (29434)	10/14/1999 6:55:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>Frankly, Im glad that you noticed that strong comments of a crash has been limited on this thread. I just hope it stays that way for this thread, and if some wants to express their ego, theres plenty of other threads for that. Anyone that wants to shout CRASH is invited to the Millennium Crash thread. CRASH! ATG

To: donald sew who wrote (29434)	10/14/1999 10:18:00 AM
From: Filbert	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, OT? >>I have expressed my opinion toward analysts/those who make profound predictions in either direction. Heck, they could be right but the point I have always made is that statistically the probability of calling a strong move consistently is about the same as flipping a coin. But, of course, we have the hand wavers and especially those who make strong predictions without support, who ever so often will get it right. Then some make them look like a genius since they want a GURU to follow.<< I use a statistics program for modeling certain economics factors in determining market effects and read charts like a lot of the folks on SI. When I buy individual stocks, I do the normal fundamental analysis, but I use the technical analysis to try and determine when to buy in and get out. The one thing that is difficult for me IS the subjective part of these decisions. For example, some people (myself included) think that we are looking at a turn down next week. The trade report, the Fed bias worries, the bonds, the commodity issues on oil and gold (whether its real or manipulated), etc. etc., all are hard to fit into a model. When I look and try to predict the market direction, (I guess this is sort of on topic after all), I test the possible changes to the key factors in what if? scenarios to get at what could happen, and then I have to choose an action plan. But there is a subjective aspect to the analysis, (bonds, Greenspan, et al) that inform the action plan. I'm certainly not at the level of some of the folks on this thread in market prediction; I just use the information to time my cycling of stocks. I just wonder how anyone can be that profound given the enormous number of variables in the world economy. Do any of you have some statistical method you use to mitigate those subjective factors? Or do you rely on your experience to "know" what is likely to happen? Sorry to all for the long post and good luck to all. Filbert