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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dclapp who wrote (29443)	10/13/1999 6:15:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

doug, were aapl's earnings estimates lowered in the past couple of weeks after they pre-warned?

To: dclapp who wrote (29443)	10/13/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: miklosh	Respond to of 99985

<This silly game of "beat the estimate" should be seen for what it is, by anyone seriously trying to determine the "direction" of a stock or a market.> I agree that "beat the estimates" is a game(which msft plays very well). I also am not impressed with aapl's year over year numbers, and I appreciate you posting them. You'd think that a rational price evaluation such as the one you present, would be the prime determinant of a stock's price.The fact that CNBs and CNNfn are hyping aapl's earnings will affect market perception, and therefore may have a more pronounced short term affect on the overall tech mkt than reality-based fundamentals. <you have to determine what the "ball" is.> Since many folks "are" fooled by smoke and mirrors, market psychology and hype, imho, as well as the fundamentals and technicals, are equally important elements (balls <G>) to consider. regards Miklosh

To: dclapp who wrote (29443)	10/13/1999 7:14:00 PM
From: OX	Respond to of 99985

OT: AAPL well AAPL was at 80 when it warned and promptly dropped to 70. then taiwan, dropped below 60. it missed revenues from yr-2-yr qtr by 14%; even w/ afterhours "pop", AAPL is still down over 17% from its 80 high. so is AAPL overvalued here or undervalued a year ago? IMHO, afterhours "pop" is not merely from earnings numbers, but that IBM will be producing G4's _and_ the huge preorders for iBooks and iMacs announced. don't worry tho, I'm sure AAPL isn't done seeing 60 (or 80).. and even at 80 it will still sport valuations along more reasonable lines than other computer makers. not a Mac owner or user; I have positions in AAPL

To: dclapp who wrote (29443)	10/13/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: Plaything	Respond to of 99985

On Oct 1st CS First Boston cut estimates from .76c to .45c, a nearly 40% haircut. And today it comes out with .51c and CNBS and their bullpen crew are gushing all over the numbers. Why don't analysts estimate even lower numbers all the time in the first place? They are almost always off the mark in either direction! Companies will then consistantly beat them no matter what troubles they run into! And the markets can live happily forever after!:)