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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (29445)	10/13/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

CJ, I was just leafing thru his last october newsletter, he did an 80 year study of 5 week ma of 14 week rsi, using 30 & 70 as overbought and oversold. This RSI had a gap of 520 weeks between oversold 30 levels in the 20's bull 232 weeks between 32 and 37 bull 575 weeks between the 45 to 57 bull from 57 to 82 it visited oversold 30 about every 2-4 years. and NOW! 624 WEEKS without an oversold reading (last one 1987) So we are well into the time frame for a bear market washout, even as the bookstores have Dow 36,000, Dow 100,000 and the Long Boom Ahead lining the bookshelves -ggg- Interestingly we would have matched the 50's bull if last october we would have gotten this washout, but did not get enough of a sell-off bb

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (29445)	10/13/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Challo, sometimes during a bull market, eager buyers wait for a pullback to buy, only to miss out on a move as the pullback never materializes...i suppose in a bear market it may at times be the other way around. imo stocks do not yet reflect the change in the interest rate environment properly. essentially we are still in complacent ga-ga land. however, the slide in treasury bonds does mean something. it basically means that the bond market regards the risk of inflationary pressures mounting as a serious concern. the Fed on the other hand, has barely acted as of yet, whether due to political pressure or for fear of instigating a crash is actually irrelevant. what IS relevant is that the bond market is delivering a vote of no confidence. and if confidence in the Fed is waning, all financial markets have a real problem. judging from anecdotal evidence, analysts interviewed on CNBC for instance, there is still very little concern out there...in fact, the bull market mantra of recent years continues to be preached without fail. to be fair, we have no conclusive proof yet that a bear market has indeed begun...some sectors are in one, others are not. but i agree with Mr.Barbera that the evidence is mounting by the day... regards, hb