To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (45174 ) 10/13/1999 11:46:00 PM From: Secret_Agent_Man Respond to of 122087
nice to see ya again.}:+D Posted 10/13/99 Stocks to Watch See Mary's watch portfolio. Community Join the discussions in MoneyCentral's Investing community. Careful Investor The 7 biggest investing mistakes If you're guilty, you're not alone. Many investors fall prey to overconfidence, trading too often and befuddlement about risk. These blunders can really cost you. By Mary Rowland We all make investing mistakes, or have made them in the past. The difference now, perhaps, is that the Internet has given us more power to control our investing decisions. Day traders are everywhere and tens of thousands of us monitor our investments from our homes or offices on a daily basis. We can make instantaneous decisions that can directly affect our financial well-being. This is both good and bad, as it means we're susceptible to making more mistakes than our parents or grandparents did. The key is not to make the same mistakes twice. Here are my candidates for the seven biggest investing mistakes: 1. Chasing performance. Too many investors buy assets when they're at their peak, after a long run-up. Witness what's happening with Japan. Some funds, like Fidelity Japan (FJPNX) are up 170% year-to-date. That prompted a lot of discussion in the MSN MoneyCentral investing community about whether it is time to buy Japan. Last January was the time to buy Japan. 2. Misunderstanding risk. Most investors take an "all-or-nothing" view of risk, calling themselves risk averse or a risk taker and then acting on it. In fact, the latest thinking on risk tolerance is that we don't have an inherited risk tolerance that we're born with and destined to live with. Instead, risk tolerance is like a muscle. It can be developed with knowledge and experience and practice, lots of practice. I urge investors to work on that. The flip side is that many investors don't realize that a stock or a mutual fund with juiced-up performance has more potential for loss. I see this clearly in the enhanced index funds. Investors are so delighted when an enhanced fund beats the index it is modeled on that they ignore (or don't understand) that the only way it can beat the index is to take on more risk than the index. Taking on more risk means you can fall on your face, too. We saw that a couple of years ago with Fidelity Disciplined Equity (FDEQX), which was beating the Standard & Poor's 500 handily with its black box investment strategy. Then suddenly it started underperforming the S&P and many investors were shocked. 3. Loss aversion. Psychologists, who can measure such things, find that people hate to lose money. We tend to feel much more pain after we've lost $1 than we feel pleasure after making $1.". More than twice as much. As a result, some investors tend to take on more risk to avoid a loss than they will to achieve a gain, which is really upside down by my count. You should take the risk for increased gains, not to mitigate losses. This personality trait often leads these people to not sell their losers even if it makes good sense to do so. The only folks who are immune to overconfidence, Kahneman has found, are the clinically depressed. 4. Trading too much. This has become particularly acute in today's Internet day-trading world. Trading reduces returns. Professor Terrance Odean at the University of California, Davis, has shown that time and again in the studies he has done using the 150,000 accounts he obtained from a discount broker. When investors were split into five groups based on trading activity, those who traded most lagged those who traded least by 7 percentage points. (For more on the Odean study, see Is online trading bad for your portfolio?.) 5. Ignoring expenses with mutual funds. Expenses matter. Over and over again in the newsgroup, I see the notion that it is performance, not expenses that count in mutual funds. Nonsense. Funds that have high expenses show contempt for their shareholders. The really good fund managers put their own money into the funds they manage. And they don't want to see 2% of it skimmed off for expenses. Neither should we. 6. Buying on tips/Not researching investments. These two mistakes are so closely intertwined that you really can't separate them. Don't buy anything you don't understand. This problem has been around forever. In the 1980s, when folks still went to cocktail parties, they picked up their tips there. Today, lots of investors get them over the Internet. Either way, trading on tips makes investing a social activity. If the investment tanks, you'll have someone to blame and someone to commiserate with. Do your own research. If I ask you why you bought a stock or a mutual fund, you should be able to tell me in three or four sentences. Use the tools available right here on MoneyCentral to gauge a company's financial strength; what analysts think about it (or Morningstar if it's a mutual fund); look for the Advisor FYIs to get pointed toward relevant information; and read the company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Careful Investor Archives • Why I think small caps belong in your portfolio, 10/6/99 • Are mutual fund fees really going down?, 10/6/99 • Take a look at what index trusts really cost, 9/22/99 More… 7. Overconfidence. This is another point I'll yield to the behaviorists, who find that once we make a decision -- any decision -- we become optimistic about it. Researchers like professor Daniel Kahneman at Princeton University have found that it extends even to coin flips. If someone rubs the coin and blows on it, his estimate of whether he will win the flip goes up by nearly 15 percentage points. The only folks who are immune to overconfidence, Kahneman has found, are the clinically depressed. They have a realistic view of their chances. Clearly it's better to be overconfident than clinically depressed. But watch out for it when investing. When the market heads down, the overconfident investor quickly begins to worry that his luck has run out and he sells. We have to see this pattern for what it is and work against it. moneycentral.msn.com