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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kemble s. matter who wrote (144550)	10/14/1999 12:22:00 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Kemble Re 5 year Dell projection Math not too useful as need too many assumptions but here it is 1. Assume 20% growth each year in the industry that Dell occupies ( What will that be in 2003?) 2. Worst case at end of five years Dell retains an 11% market share with 8% margins- Sales profits and stock price rise by 248% 3. Case #2.Dell grows to 25% share on following schedule Year 0 11% share Year 1 13% share Year 3 15% share Year 4 20% share Year 5 25% share At end of year 5 Dell has risen by 470% to $117 bil sales 4. Case #3. Dell grows to 50% share at end of 5 years on a similar progressive schedule from 11% to 50% Dell is up by 1030% with a market cap of $1.19 trillion 5. Case #5 Dell continues a standard 50%/ year growth for 5 years Dell grows by 660% to sales of $165 bil Conclusion: Well not much, but yearly sales of $100 bil should occur between year 3 and year 4 IE, about 2002. -------------------------------------------------------------- To eliminate the confusion of the math and uncertainty of 5 year projection, I prefer a two year projection based on following to estimate what Dells stock price may be: 1. Associated industry growth in stock price last two years: Dell 600% Csco 420% Msft 200% Intc 200% 2. Dell is growing at several times the (computer) industry which is booming (up 38% in US) and has far less market share than Intc and Msft (more room to grow in chosen field) 3. Dell stock price may grow slower than it did, but still more than Intc or Msft. Perhaps same as Csco. Say 400% in two years Major uncertainty here is the Nasdaq, so we need the market to continue on up to reach that 400% figure. ($180/sh) Summary: Expected worst case zero inflation, Dow flat for next two years, Dell grows 50% a year and we reach $101/share before those 2002 Leaps mature.(G) Sig ( since Jan says she understands the words, I'll post this (hehe)