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To: Defrocked who wrote (68754)	10/13/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

re: #2... HO HO... sounds like me. i can say that kinda crazy stuff cause its me, but you gotta watch out or you'll get a nickname from Ice (BG) i think your thoughts are right on.... expect a printathon post selloff.... i think that's what gold is telling us...

To: Defrocked who wrote (68754)	10/14/1999 2:21:00 AM
From: Imuah	Respond to of 86076

Def, thanks for the measured reply. I'm not about to enter any long positions just yet. More likely I'd be looking to play the short side given current conditions. tippet mentioned waiting for the inevitable bounce before going lower. Knowing this market, a bounce is to be expected. Even now, the futures are up on the SP500 and the Naz. With inflation report due out soon any position on an index would have to be viewed as a gamble. IMO, odds would seem to favor a higher inflation rate at some point. CRB is climbing strongly and the last NAPM report indicated substantially higher prices for raw materials. But it seems that the stock market only pays attention to the CPI/PPI numbers. Eventually, these reports will have to reflect higher prices. I noticed that SFY stock has been hammered lately. I don't know the reason, but one scenario could be that profits for grocery chains are being squeezed by higher prices at the wholesale level that have not yet been passed on to the consumer because of competitive pricing at retail level. Point I am trying to make is that higher prices will eventually have to be reflected in the CPI/PPI reports. One way to play may be to buy cheap otm puts on an index the day before report is released keeping in mind that a position such as this would have to be considered throw away money from the get-go in the somewhat unlikely event that inflation is shown to be benign. Thanks for the opportunity to get some of this out in print. Helps with the strategy building process.