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To: Sector Investor who wrote (16257)10/14/1999 1:29:00 AM
From: signist  Respond to of 42804
 
WDM Makes Waves
Carriers all over the world look to catch the wavelength by adding to
their existing fiber
Frank Barbetta, Contributing Writer

Wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM), once considered just another transport technology, is fast
becoming the heart and soul of the global telecommunications infrastructure. Carriers worldwide are
deploying WDM like never before, as emerging higher-capacity WDM technology-80 wavelengths
with 10-Gbit/s channels-makes its way into the market.

WDM isn't new in carrier networks. But its popularity is on the rise because of increased traffic
demands, mostly due to the Internet. Carriers are looking to WDM as a cost-effective way to
increase bandwidth without laying new fiber optic cabling for point-to-point traffic. WDM fragments a
single strand of fiber into different wavelengths that provide multiple channels of multigigabit speeds.

North American long-distance providers such as AT&T, Sprint Corp., MCI WorldCom Inc. and other
regional and newcomer carriers, are adding WDM to their fiber optic plants. Global Crossing Ltd.
(Hamilton, Bermuda) is building WDM into its new transoceanic submarine cable network, and BT
and other carriers in Europe are building pan-European lightwave networks with WDM.

And in the United States, incumbent local service providers like Bell Atlantic Corp. are considering
WDM for their existing fiber interoffice trunks, as well as for the local loop. Competitive local service
providers and competitive access providers (CAPs) with fiber- and radio-distribution networks such
as WinStar Communications Inc. (New York) are also in the early stages of WDM implementation.

WDM also provides add/drop muxing for the fiber ring, which lets carriers split waves on a ring
among different cities, for instance, using a single mux. Add/drop capability already exists in
traditional, copper-based time-division multiplexing (TDM) networks, and carriers currently use WDM
to concentrate and consolidate their mix of wide-area network (WAN) platforms. Former standalone
Synchronous Optical Network/Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (Sonet/SDH) electronics are now
getting integrated into WDM transmission systems, and the groundwork is being laid for direct
interfaces of optic/WDM systems into WAN switching and routing hardware. These integrated
boxes, such as Lucent Technologies Inc.'s WaveStar, handle WDM, optic routing, Sonet/SDH and
network management.

On a Roll

Service providers are buying WDM systems like hotcakes. Barry Flanigan, senior analyst with
Ovum Ltd. (London), says several factors are driving WDM deployment today. Among them are the
surge in worldwide data traffic, mostly due to Internet bandwidth demands; new competition in global
telecom's liberalized markets, which has forced both existing carriers to expand their networks and
new operators to grow capacity fast; and optical networking in the telco infrastructure, where WDM
can be used for more than just increasing capacity and relieving congestion. "We see price
reductions making WDM economically attractive for network applications, and for shorter-distance
applications in the metropolitan, interoffice and access regions of the network," says Flanigan.

Ovum expects sales of WDM equipment worldwide to increase from over US$1.1 billion in 1998 to
more than $8.6 billion in 2005. North America's market share will fall from around 80 percent to 50
percent during that period, as deployment increases in Europe, Asia and Latin America.

Communications Industry Researchers Inc. (CIR, Charlottesville, Va.) says that WDM has begun to
generate significant equipment revenue since 1996, and the hope is that it will drive all-optical
switched networks in the future. CIR says leading WDM vendors like Alcatel N.V., Lucent and
Nortel Networks Corp. are each shipping a few hundred WDM systems per year.

The average price for WDM systems shipped to service providers in the United States ranges from
$500,000 to $2 million, and the pricing is much the same in Europe and the Pacific Rim, according
to CIR. Its shipment forecasts, which are somewhat higher than Ovum's, are based on its
assumption that telecom traffic growth will drive infrastructure upgrades and that WDM will dominate
the high-end Sonet sector by 2007. "The systems at OC-48 and above will increasingly have WDM
capability rather than be pure time-division multiplexed Sonet," says Lawrence Gasman, president
of CIR.

In contrast, forecasts from Insight Research Corp. (Parsippany, N.J.) are relatively conservative, with
WDM and Sonet/SDH markets at nearly US$5.3 billion and $15 billion, respectively, in 2003.

Most WDM vendors today are working on higher-capacity muxes, with 80-wavelength and larger
configurations. Although many carriers operate 16- and 40-wavelength implementations, upgrading
to the higher-capacity WDM will be simple with the new generation of products.

Vendors are also adding support for Sonet and SDH transport protocols to WDM muxes, which
extend Sonet's multiple OC-48 (2.4 Gbit/s) to OC-192 (10 Gbit/s) channel levels and higher, and
SDH's synchronous transfer mode (STM) equivalents, from STM-16 to STM-64 and higher.

Hot Stuff

Lucent remains the prime WDM supplier to AT&T, which boasts the highest WDM concentration
among all carriers. AT&T's goal is to install some 1,800 WDM muxes by year's end-up from about
1,200 in the first quarter of this year. Most of AT&T's existing WDM systems are 16 wavelengths,
but AT&T is also testing Lucent's new WaveStar 400G equipment, which can hit 80 wavelengths.

Lucent is also selling WDM to carriers with large fiber optic and wireless network plans. Among its
U.S. customers are Winstar, Global Crossing, Hyperion Communications Inc. (Coudersport, Pa.)
and Time Warner Telecom (Greenwood Village, Colo.), while some of the overseas buyers include
the Netherlands' KPN Telecom BV, Spain's Telefonica de Espana and Korea Telecom. "We are
initially putting in equipment handling 80 wavelengths at OC-48 speeds, but we'll go to 40
wavelengths at OC-192 when that becomes available," says George Simons, senior vice president
of network construction and deployment for WinStar.

Simons says capacity expansion will be key for WinStar's intercity and metro ring plans for fiber,
which are locally accessed via GHz-level radio, and for its network service for Internet service
providers. "Internet traffic is doubling every six to eight months," he says. "Our customers will need
a lot of bandwidth, so we are looking for the big WDM systems."

Kathy Szelag, vice president of Lucent's Optical Networking Group, says that while many service
deployments today are at lower-wavelength levels, most carriers are starting to test WDM systems
handling at 80, versus 16, wavelengths. "The reason is that the initial customer price and other
costs for cutting something over at above 16 is better than below 16," she says. "So you might as
well just buy the bigger systems and upgrade."

Stan Hanks, vice president of research and technology at Enron Communications (Portland, Ore.),
says that once fiber is terminated on the lines, you just bring up a new channel by installing an
interface card in the WDM system. "Initially you may need only a handful of channels," says Hanks,
"but if traffic needs drive higher, the investment is on hand. A plug-in is simple."

"You can get the equivalents of OC-48 and OC-192 without Sonet but using ATM [asynchronous
transfer mode] as the interface," says Mark Allen, manager of technology development at Williams
Communications (Tulsa, Okla.), which runs WDM. "The fact is that anybody that doesn't have to do
such legacy networking can start right away with 16 or 32 wavelengths or more."

Although carriers worldwide today can deploy 40-wavelength, OC-192 systems, this capacity isn't
being fully implemented due to a variety of traffic and economic factors. "It's not just a matter of
demand for the hottest stuff," he says. "There is the logistics of all the electronics to be installed.
This can be a big capital expense."

Long-distance carrier GST Telecommunications Inc. (Vancouver, Wash.) is sticking with an 8- and
16-wavelength system because its technology is "stable and safe," and its prices are declining with
the arrival of the newer WDM technology. "In a year or two, or three, if the fiber is full, you can
migrate upward or even swap out systems completely and maybe even skip 32 and 64 wavelengths
altogether, and go with 128 or so," says Steve Hemsley, vice president of engineering for GST.

Hemsley says fiber and WDM are the "real" core of the network, versus Internet protocol (IP), ATM
and Sonet, which are all basically transient technologies.

In fact, fiber and WDM are becoming nearly synonymous. The two go hand in hand among many of
the carrier interconnection agreements, fiber swaps and capacity resale arrangements in the United
States. WDM, for instance, was a big part of Williams Telecommunications' capacity-sale deals
with WinStar and GST, as well as Enron's with Frontier Communications (Rochester, N.Y.), AT&T's
with At Home Corp. (@Home, Redwood City, Calif.), and Global Crossing's with Europe's Unisource
consortium. That group consists of DDI Corp. (Tokyo), Level 3 Communications Inc. (Omaha, Neb.)
and Cable & Wireless PLC (C&W, London).

On the Fast Track

Meanwhile, carriers want even more capacity and enhanced optics in WDM equipment, and the
vendors are taking notice. "By year's end, it will be common to have 200 to 300 Gbit/s per fiber,"
says Brian McFadden, vice president and general manager of Nortel's OPTera Solutions Division.
"The industry is already well beyond 32 wavelengths and into 40-, 50- and 60-wavelength domains.
During the fourth quarter we expect more."

More could mean 160-wavelength, 40-Gbit/s systems called OC-768/STM-256, says Ross Nelson,
worldwide business development manager for telecom test and measurement at Tektronix Inc.
(Wilsonville, Ore.).

Meantime, specifications and standards for WDM's A/D muxes and optical cross-connects-as well
as management, test and measurement issues-are among the key topics being addressed by the
Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF). The OIF, which includes members from Ciena Corp.
(Linthicum, Md.), Cisco Systems Inc. (San Jose, Calif.), AT&T, Telcordia Technologies Inc.
(formerly Bellcore, Morristown, N.J.), Hewlett-Packard Co. (H-P, Palo Alto, Calif.), Qwest
Communications International Inc. (Denver), Sprint and MCI WorldCom, is also working on direct
optical interfaces for routing and switching equipment, as well as interoperability agreements among
WDM vendors and service providers.

telecom99news.itu.int



To: Sector Investor who wrote (16257)10/14/1999 1:34:00 AM
From: signist  Respond to of 42804
 
Fiber Deficiency
Latin America needs infrastructure. Several companies have begun an
aggressive push to provide it
Ricardo Castillo, Contributing Writer

First it was cellular; now it's data transmission. Data services are the next big thing in Latin
American telecommunications, with its increasing teledensity and its growth in Internet hosts
second only to China.

But the bandwidth needed to move the growing data traffic is still largely absent. And since real
competition has yet to arrive in most Latin American countries, PTTs have kept a stranglehold on
capacity, making users pay dearly for data pipes. The Argentinean portion of a 2-Mbit/s leased line
to the United States or Europe, for example, runs US$72,610, according to Phillips Tarifica Ltd.
(London). Compare that to Chile, perhaps the region's most competitive country, where the same
link costs $28,125, according to Phillips.

In Argentina alone, the market for data transmission and other related services is expected to grow
this year more than 85 percent, with projected sales of about US$450 million. But until the
necessary fiber infrastructure is in place, service providers can't offer reliable and inexpensive
bandwidth for advanced telecom services, such as Internet, leased lines and corporate intranets, in
the key cities and markets.

The tide is about to turn, however. Annual fiber ring and pipeline deployment has grown at a 11.6
percent pace since 1997, according to a study by KMI Corp. (Newport, R.I.). And it's likely to
increase at a faster rate through 2003, says the market research firm. "Although the Caribbean is
small, geographically speaking, this region has more planned fiber deployment in the next five years
than the Mediterranean and northern Europe," says KMI president John Kessler.

PTTs and nontraditional players such as cable TV companies and utilities are leading the
aggressive pace of new infrastructure deployment in Latin America. Former monopolies have
completed deploying fiber on their own turf and are now ready to branch out into other regions as
competition opens up.

Take Telecom Argentina (Buenos Aires) and Telefonica de Argentina (Buenos Aires). In preparation
for the partial opening of the Argentine telecom market this November--and having nearly completed
digitizing their own networks--the two carriers are beginning to lay fiber in each other's regions. Next
year, they will compete nationwide against each other, as well as with two other carriers-Compania
de Telefonos del Interior S.A. (CTI Movil), owned by GTE Corp., and Compania de
Radiocomunicaciones Moviles S.A. (Movicom, Buenos Aires), owned by BellSouth Corp.

Ring Around the Continent

Latin American service providers also want to take advantage of the huge rings that will come by
their shorelines. In addition to metropolitan fiber optic networks, undersea fiber cables are being
installed by international carriers such as Atlantis 2, IDT Corp. (Hackensack, N.J.) and GlobeNet
Capital Corp. (Winter Park, Fla.).

So Latin America will go from having no undersea connectivity on the Pacific coast to having several
rings interconnect and link with several international fiber systems. Telefonica de Espana S.A.
(Madrid)--which plans to link all of its companies in Peru, Chile, Argentina and Brazil--will connect to
several rings, including those from Global Crossing Ltd. (Beverly Hills, Calif.), which will cover the
continent's southernmost portion. It also will link up with the new pan-American cable, which
provides the first undersea fiber connection to the west coast of South and Central America.

All this is happening now and will continue over the next two years. So Latin American service
providers will be able to offer long-haul data services outside their home regions and countries.
"Privatization has spurred deployment of more fiber," says Kessler. "Argentina is ahead of its
timetable for privatization. Peru just opened, as well as Colombia. Mexico is turning up local
competition." But the prize is still Brazil: "Even with its economic problems, it's still the country
showing the greatest growth."

After Brazil's telecom monopoly, Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras S.A. (Telebras, Sao Paulo), went
private and broke into multiple companies, the new companies were required to provide both certain
voice and data services, as well as specific volumes of lines, in short order to service a huge pent-up
demand.

This means more fiber infrastructure for Brazil; deployment is at a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 17 percent, according to the KMI study. Brazilian government figures show total
investment in infrastructure is expected to reach US$60 billion in 2003; a third of that would be for
fiber optic cable and network systems. If the projections are right, Brazil would have increased its
total deployment of fiber by 2003 from 1.6 million to 9.6 million kilometers for telco, cable television
and other uses. "This would be twice the amount forecast for Mexico and more than six times the
amount for Argentina," says Peter Whitney, an economist at American University (Washington,
D.C.) who specializes in counseling investors on political and business risks in Latin America.

Full Steam Ahead?

One Latin American service provider forging ahead, despite losses of more than $17 million last
year, is ImpSat Corp. (Buenos Aires). The company, which operates prive telecom networks in
seven countries--Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, the United States and
Venezuela-and licenses in 12 other countries, plans to spend $2 billion over the next six years to
build a high-speed voice and data network that spans Latin America and the United States.

Using a combination of about 3 million km of optical fiber, wireless and satellite technology, ImpSat
wants to offer value-added services like videoconferencing, leased data lines and Internet in 170 key
Latin American cities and markets, thus becoming the region's largest land backbone provider.

"The future of this business now goes well beyond voice," says ImpSat chief financial officer
Guillermo Jofre, who says his company had a head start in building a regionwide network system for
wideband transmission. "We feel we are in the right business at the right time." ImpSat's client base
has increased from 125 in 1992 to 1,251 today.

ImpSat may be an example of the potential of the the region's fiber market, but it also illustrates its
perils. With so much economic uncertainty, ImpSat's annual growth of 30 percent is likely to slow
down, says Jofre, since it is becoming increasingly hard to raise investment capital. Investors are
simply not buying emerging market securities.

Then there's Chile, where fiber is plentiful. "Chile has three fiber networks that cover all of its territory
and all of its main and medium-sized cities," says Jose Manuel Casanueva, president of Teleductos
S.A. (Santiago, Chile). “We are the only country in Latin America with a problem of surplus
capacity, and the existing competition will bring the present fiber rates down even more."

Teleductos has among its clients five of the six local telephone companies in Santiago, the main
long-distance operators and most of Chile's big local corporations. Fiber also is being added to
customer premises and even to some homes, says Casanueva. That is because the cost to install
fiber on many of the existing ducts is very inexpensive. "It is at least more convenient and
cost-effective than installing switching equipment," he says.

Meanwhile, Latin America has the largest regional growth of authorized international carriers
entering the market, as well as a growing number of local carriers resulting from the privatization of
former monopolies, says Patrick Joggerst, vice president of global sales and marketing for Global
Crossing. The challenge then becomes foreseeing the impact of an increase in data traffic on their
networks' bandwidth and getting ready to provide the services that will keep them afloat.

telecom99news.itu.int



To: Sector Investor who wrote (16257)10/14/1999 1:43:00 AM
From: signist  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42804
 
Cisco Eyes Major Expansion
Acquisition streak to continue as company follows Chamber's vision
Jeremiah Caron, tele.com

Already one of the largest networking equipment suppliers, in terms of influence if not actual annual
revenues, an unsatisfied Cisco Systems Inc. is getting set for what it intends to be dramatic growth.

During interviews and press conferences here at the Telecom 99 show in
Geneva, company executives were clear about the fact that its
notoriously voracious appetite for strategic acquisitions is nowhere near
sated. In addition, the executives pinpointed new markets it intends to
enter, either through buy-outs or internal development.

"The pace of acquisitions of the past months will be typical of the future,"
said John Chambers, Cisco's chairman and CEO, during a press
conference Monday. The company has scooped up ten companies
already this year, and expects to nab five to ten more by the end of the
year. "This speaks to how broad the marketplace is we're trying to
address," added Chambers.

The chief executive was quick to point out that these investments are in
addition to the 13.5-percent of revenue it intends to spend on internal R&D this year.

From a technology standpoint, the company is focusing heavily on optical networking, broadband
wireless, cable technology and software platforms targeted to service providers.

While the company derives 50 percent of its revenue outside the U.S., it expects to accelerate
expansion into new markets--including regions that are just now figuring out ways to build
communications infrastructures. "It would be a tragedy for emerging nations to build-out on dead
technology," said Chambers, referring to the circuit-switched networks that make up today's public
switched telephone network (PSTN).

Cisco remains undaunted by claims that the Internet, and Internet Protocol (IP) technology in
general, will never be robust enough to support carrier-class voice traffic. It asserts that the industry
is two-to-three years into a five-year journey that supports its vision. Cisco also contends that some
incumbent carriers are already getting more revenue from data networks than from voice networks,
though it would not specify which carriers.

Finally, Chambers couldn't resist taking a potshot at its rival, Lucent Technologies Inc.--whose
equipment was blamed for the recent MCI Worldcom Inc. network outage--while discussing the
relative reliability of data and telecommunications gear. "One of our competitors found out the hard
way that just because you're reliable in voice doesn't mean you're reliable in data," he said.

telecom99news.itu.int