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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zurdo who wrote (24327)	10/14/1999 12:11:00 AM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

Actually, I don't think anyone on the outside knows what is going on with NAVR. A few loosely related thoughts: 1) IMO, the pop to 15.5 was not enough commotion nor was there sufficient volume to get all the miles out of NAVR that is possible near-term. Much more to come. The MM's, Fletcher and the latest tender (scammer?) Will see to that. 2) Old longs who sold on the rise made an OK play of now almost last years "back door play"strategy. Most probably sold at small profits or even at a loss but sold out of disgust and impatience very certainly. Now there is less of an overhead supply of old sellers. 3) New shorts coming in at the low teens will not see their single digits in the time frame which they expect. They will be frustrated. 4) New longs expecting the moon tomorrow are betting on a "story stock" play. They will be disappointed. 5) As an outsider myself, I think that there will be NAVR surprises, post NETR IPO, post 25 days silence, post earnings reports and post Christmas season e-commerce revenue results. One thing going for NAVR is their happening to be positioned in the e-commerce distribution business (more luck than design this). Much larger well-heeled big war chest Net players would see NAVR as a fast way to solve their distribution side problems. I see NETR as something that Paulson was finally forced to get rid of. No one of importance wants it. Shorn of NETR, NAVR takes on an alure as a no cost debt free quick fix to an infrastructural problem. Long term NAVR holders may finally wind up holding someone else's shares in exchange for their NAVR.holdings. Time frame? Possibly Winter / Spring. In sum, volatility will be present, and most short term traders will be disappointed and frustrated. Likewise, moonshot longs need to update last year's strategy to be coincident with tomorrow's possibilities. WAG NETR.....O - 14 H - 17 L - 12 C - 13 NAVR ... C - 14 Ed Perry PS: I've been long 6800 since Spring 97 (@$2.50)and expect to see the solid (not spiked MM h.s.) 20's (or an equivalent market value) for a three year holding period - about right for a turnaround.