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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (839)	10/14/1999 3:09:00 AM
From: Plaything	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

So tell me, what is really wrong with this stock market?<gggg> Yeah, I am in the same camp. I communicated with Bill Fleckenstein more than a year ago and Intel was our focus then too. One could make the argument that last year's market bullishness was excessive as well, but as I see it, the only (and its a big one) difference between that time and now is that last year just about every market sector (excepting gold of course) was strongly up. So every market correction was picked up and run right back up fearlessly. Not so anymore. Commodities, gold, oil, interest rates, have all found new life and are up in joyful unison. Whilst the Trans, Banks, Pharmaceuticals, REITS, etc..(soon the Techs), are all scrambling for cover. The confidence is surely misplaced now with these sectors wandering in the dark. There is no doubt that the Internet and Cell phones have changed our lives as we know it. I mean look at us, chatting and surfing away here every night! I never spent my evenings like this 4 years ago, and nor did I watch and trade the market like we all do now. This IS a Paradigm shift IMO, at least for now. It may end up being a 90's trend when we look back in the future. That still does not mean that companies like AMZN, IVIL, PHCM, JNPR, TIVO, YHOO, etc..ought to be rewarded multi billion dollar market caps, those excesses will be wrung out, for sure! You know I read on one of these threads awhile back that the end of every decade this century has caused some major worldly change. I will search it out and repost it here, it was fascinating to read that list, and we might be facing another one of those changes real soon.

To: J.T. who wrote (839)	10/14/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

...<Yes, we may potentially get this nice little bounce tomorrow, DOW 10,410 is now intraday resistance. But when will this potential gain, if it occurs, evaporate? On the downside, the radar is locked onto DOW 10K. Ultimate target before the significant bounce is DOW 9,770>. The rally has evaporated. IBM dead meow's bounce is pathetic. Here we go again. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (839)	10/15/1999 1:46:00 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

This is the guts of the issue in measuring risk MR G. asks: ...<There can be little doubt that the dramatic improvements in information technology in recent years have altered our approach to risk. Some analysts perceive that information technology has permanently lowered equity premiums and, hence, permanently raised the prices of the collateral that underlies all financial assets>..... -------------------------------------------------------------------- We had this discussion last night in MITA 839: ...<I think the larger issue which is going to be resolved between now and the end of year 2000, imho is this New Paradigm New Age mojo: that technological advancements and the internet have led to a permanent shift in stock market valuations and it is projected economic growth rates and beating the street earnings estimate that counts and not dividends, book value, price earnings ratios and all the traditional valuations of stock market analysis that got us here in the first place over the course of these last several centuries. As if two hundred years don't matter anymore. Shades of 1929, NO???>... ...<The bulls (new paradigm believer) in their own mind have a valid argument since they can point to this unparalleled bull run since 1995 as the fruits of these advances. And technological advances there have been indeed- no doubt. It is the markets valuation that I am having this huge credibility gap But at the same time the cracks are starting to show in the bull mortar, the worm is turning and the jury is still out>... ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Even Mr G. mentions the year 1995: ...<The marked increase over this decade in the projected slope of technology advance, of course, has also augmented expectations of earnings growth, as evidenced by the dramatic increase since 1995 in security analysts' projections of long-term earnings. While it may be that the expectations of higher earnings embodied in equity values have had a spillover effect on discount factors, the latter remain essentially independent of the earnings expectations themselves>... Class is dismissed. OUT. Best regards, J.T.