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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8292)	10/14/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: James Sinclair	Respond to of 54805

UF, Speaking as one of your newer thread members, thanks for the history lesson. Nice to know how things have evolved here over time. My problem with buying a basket of stocks is more practical than philosophical. My only outlet for playing the GG at the moment is in a rollover IRA that, while growing quite nicely, does not have unlimited funds. If I try to spread those funds around a basket of stocks, I'm not going to end up with many shares of anything. Since joining the thread, I've established initial positions in Q, GMST, and CTXS, but have really had to scramble hard even to do that. For the time being, I'm probably going to continue waiting until a little later in the process when the clear winner is emerging. I expect I'll still manage to do OK.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8292)	10/14/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>the book advocates buying baskets of gorilla candidates while this thread, for the most part, seems to prefer to buy single established gorillas or extremely likely emerging gorillas... Now, which approach is smarter/safer/more lucrative? That's a very astute observation, SH. I'd be very interested in your assessment. When Dancelot and I started G&K, we agreed that we disagreed with the market basket approach...we stated many times that we preferred the safety of the Silverbacks.<< Frank, your post was excellent and should perhaps be referenced in the thread header. I was able to make my "astute observation" because I have read most of the posts on this board. However, now that we have so many post it becomes extremely difficult for new participants to go back and do all that reading. We tell them to RTFM but what we perhaps should say is: read the manual, as it is a vital starting point for this discussion group, but realize that we are employing a variation on the methodologies explained there. As far as which method is better, undoubtedly investing in silverbacks such as MSFT/CSCO/INTC is much less risky than buying baskets of companies in tornado markets, but the return may not be as high (it should not be as high - if risk is rewarded in the marketplace). Staking out companies like QCOM is something of a middle ground. It is not as established and therefore has more room to grow, but risk is up a notch. Clearly, identifying QCOM's potential was a major achievement of this thread and I am a little surprised that there has been so little consensus on other candidates. It would be nice to see monthly or quarterly updates on some of the nominees. Unfortunately, I think some of the people who do nominate a company become frustrated and curtail their updates when their candidate is not immediately crowned a gorilla. That might not be the best result for this thread. The W&W sister thread was a fine idea, but it has not caught on. (Perhaps Lindy's look at the future will bring us more discussion on stocks we have touched on previously.) As Mike B. pointed out, the manual was written with the benefit of hindsight. We are operating in real time - with real money, and that is far more difficult. I think another difference between this thread and the book is that the thread is obviously more effected by the recent stock performance of the issues under review. While that is inevitable, it may not be beneficial. Getting back to SNDK, I think it is very possible to read the manual, consider oneself a strict Gorilla Gamer and buy that stock. The fact that the stock has fallen - largely based on fears as well as actual capacity constraints resulting from an earthquake - should not effect its status in the gorilla game. It either was or was not a gorilla candidate before the earthquake. The dive in the stock price does not prove anything, in my opinion, except perhaps that high flying tech stocks are subject to corrections (as it cautions in the manual). I have no doubt that QCOM will be a $500 stock in the not too distant future. I also have no doubt that somewhere along the line it will run into some trouble - real or imagined - that will cause the stock to take a big hit. That's part of the game. If the stock was good before the transitory hit, we should buy more. If it was not, and we stayed away, we should continue to stay away. SNDK was in the 30's this morning, down from the 90's just a short while ago. Already it has rebounded to $50. They are showing triple digit year over year growth and large companies are using their products and partnering with them. I am not suggesting that anyone buy this stock, I am saying that they are more than a shiney pebble. Sorry for rambling on. StockHawk

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8292)	10/14/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

GSPN- I see this as a future Gorrila.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8292)	10/16/1999 7:06:00 AM
From: Apollo	Respond to of 54805

UF >>>As time went on, we acquired threadmates with extraordinary valuation skills <ie, Merlin>, and let them lead us to Gorillas fresh from the shell, but emerged. <<< I am back, wearing mouse ears, from Orlando and slowly working my way thru the past week's posts. Haven't read more than 20%, but couldn't let this one go. Primates emerge from embryonic sacs, not shells. They are mammalians, with breasts and mammary glands......thank goodness. Apollo

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8292)	10/21/1999 5:32:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

When Dancelot and I started G&K, we agreed that we disagreed with the market basket approach. It took too much vision and required constant evaluation efforts. If you look at the early posts, we stated many times that we preferred the safety of the Silverbacks. As time went on, we acquired threadmates with extraordinary valuation skills <ie, Merlin>, and let them lead us to Gorillas fresh from the shell, but emerged. That divergence from the fm has led to a some healthy debate on the thread. Energetic market basket advocates like Cha2 and Bruce Brown chafe at the conservative nature of the thread, while the more hide bound set refers to their candidates as Shiny Pebbles. I have to once again stress the importance of taking a solid look at the revised edition of The Gorilla Game. Not only are the Silverback Gorillas engaged in Gorilla Games, but they also are engaged in Royalty and Godzilla Games as a portion of their business which has been mentioned before. The authors point this out in the new manual. In light of the Godzilla Game being a winner take all game, this has an effect on the Silverbacks if they engage in a Godzilla Game against a non Gorilla stock. Best example would be the Godzilla Game that Microsoft entered into with America Online with the AOL vs. Microsoft Network being the game in the early 90's. Windows 95 one button access to Microsoft Network was supposed to end the game when it was released in 1995 and hence the DOJ petition from the rest of the industry. "Then, out of nowhere, the World Wide Web showed up!" - revised manual, page 158 In strict rules of the Godzilla Game where winner takes all - AOL won. Microsoft lost. The stock price gain of AOL clearly illustrates the win. I certainly hope the Judge in the MSFT trial will see this in the upcoming a Friday announcement. Despite uf listing me as a thread member who chafes at the conservative nature of the thread, I think it is actually a more conservative move in safety terms to understand thoroughly the Godzilla Game and Royalty Games as well to see what effect they may have on the Gorilla Game stocks. The Internet is the big Gorilla. It is creating the value chain underneath it that Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm and Cisco will play a huge portion of their game. This we know. Look at the scramble in the CRM and ERP space to adapt. It's happening fast. Even Geoff Moore has developed an opinion in a matter of months. The revised edition takes a lot of mystery out of many issues simply by being more up to date. When playing with real time money, I consider being as up to date as possible and viewing the big picture of all games to be conservative in terms of increasing the level of safety. This is not to advocate spreading one's investment dollars throughout the games, but at least spread the knowledge absorbing abilities to include all in an effort to better understand the few. The author's felt it was important to do so and created the revised manual. Be conservative - get the new manual. BB