Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42981)	10/14/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116763

<<The consequences in the financial sector are rumoured to be even more brutal. Indeed, there was a tale doing the rounds in London yesterday that Goldman Sachs was $2 billion in a hole. Needless to say, it is only a totally unconfirmed rumour and not the sort of thing one would expect them to comment on. Nevertheless, it seems likely that some firms are in a dreadful mess. The central bankers have unwittingly set off their greatest nightmare. The abrupt reversal in the price of gold poses, if not a systemic risk, something uncomfortably close to it for a lot of firms.>> thisislondon.co.uk

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (42981)	10/16/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116763

Wave Signals Newsletter By Mike Drakulich 10-15-99 STOCK MARKET I have rarely, maybe never, in my 11 years of editing a newsletter seen a market trade this poorly and have as much downside risk as this current stock market does. Over the past decade we have seen, and investors have been trained, to "buy every dip", and up to this point have been rewarded for their efforts. In my opinion the probabilities are now as high as they get that the buying the dip crowd will not be rewarded, and in fact will regret buying this decline at these levels. And those that are playing the "momentum game", and have piled into the same few high cap Tech and Internet stocks, I believe are in store for a very rude awakening! These darling stocks, which are trading at huge multiples, in my opinion will ultimately have the worst percentage declines off their highs, perhaps in the area of 30-50%, maybe more. Yes, I am making some strong statements, and any forecast can be wrong, I have certainly been wrong before. However, if you have followed my comments all summer, I have talked endlessly about how a falling dollar and rising interest rates will lead to a major market peak, and very possibly a Bear Market. Well we have seen that forecast become reality as the dollar index is trading at the lowest levels since February, and interest rates are at two year highs. So we have seen two of the major underpinnings of this Bull market not only falter, but the down trend in the dollar and Bonds appears to be accelerating in recent days. Do not underestimate the effect both near and intermediate term this will have on the stock market. Many market indices are already off over 20% from their highs, these include Transports, Financials, and Banks. And the S&P and Dow are again near the magic 10% correction levels. While Nero is fiddling Rome has been burning. Anyone who has even a passing interest in the market is probably aware of the advance/decline line, which has been making new three year lows almost every day for the past several weeks. This is and has been a cancer eating away and weakening the market for weeks and months. That weakening is in essence a gathering and accelerating of downside momentum in most stocks, like a snowball building size and momentum as it rolls down the mountain. Unfortunately,most investors are very unaware of this occurrence and are sitting in their "glass chalets" at the bottom of that mountain. And if and when that snowball hits, there will be no chance of escaping the consequences. Ten years success of "buying the dips" is now inbred into the majority of investors psyche, and continues to be trumpeted by the "Wall Street" crowd. I believe a bear Market has already been in force in most market sectors for many months, and even longer in indices that topped last year. Now, in my opinion the odds are about as high as they get that the "glory stocks" are going to get theirs, and when the "boys" decide to sell, that "exit door" might look very small to the money managers who are loaded to the gills in the same few stocks. Remember, this is all my opinion on what might happen here, but someone has to point out the RISK. The party is going to end some time, and the dollar and interest rate trends are sending very important messages that should not be ignored. And this Friday morning as I write this report, Mr. Greenspan sends a warning about "panics" and banking reserves. With the market already this weak and reeling, could this be the straw that breaks the camels back? Should be a VERY interesting day and next few weeks. Buckle your seat belts. decisionpoint.com