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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (2090)	10/14/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3902

Have we take the US interest rate into consideration? It will keep dollar strong. Not until the Fed decides to stop scaring the hell out of the bond and stock markets with threats of more interest rate hikes. The dollar is directly impacted by the willingness of investors to convert their currency into US dollars in order to invest in US assets. If US assets remain under pressure from interest rate uncertainties (and I say uncertainty since the market can absorb an interest rate hike... It's the continual prolonging of the inevitable that applies the pressure), then we could see the dollar drop continue to slide. And people... when the US economy sneezes, the global economy catches a serious cold. It will be very interesting to see how this game of brinksmanship plays out. Knock US consumer confidence into the toilet, and cut those favorable exchange rates down to size, and all of these exporting countries are going to face SERIOUS economic problems. And when that good old US dollar gets low enough, WE'LL be the ones with the exchange rate advantage, and those nations who have dragged economic butt for the past several years will be importing more of our high-technology in order to drive their transition to Ecommerce (which we all know the US dominates in). Just my ethno-centric, patriotic, opinion... <VBG> Regards, Ron

To: borb who wrote (2090)	10/15/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: Professor Dotcomm	Respond to of 3902

I only have a very layman view on this - but I would suspect that a strong US dollar would eventually help Japanese international stocks as it would result in a weaker yen. In addition it would discourage Japanese financial institutions from repatriating their dollar balances. The two markets represent a fascinating contrast between an asset bubble that burst in late 1989 and one that is forming right now (IMHO) in the US. So, I suppose a strong US $ would be bearish in the short term on the Nikkei 225 and positive in the long term.