To: Ausdauer who wrote (7672 ) 10/15/1999 9:00:00 AM From: Art Bechhoefer Respond to of 60323
In theory, the buying and selling of stock is an n-person zero sum game, where, with the exception of random events, the winners generally have better information than the losers. Because of the transaction costs and because of the TIME it takes for the average person to become well informed, a long term strategy will generally produce better results than short term. Short term traders often know nothing about the intrinsic value of the company, its fundamental strengths or weaknesses. Instead, they rely on trend analysis, using generally accepted rules of thumb as indicators the stock is going up or down. Because trend analysis assumes that a stock price will occur historical patterns, it can't really predict very far into the future (generally less than a week). An investor with a long term horizon can still take advantage of short term fluctuations. For example, if a stock rises so high and so fast that its price appears unjustified by the fundamentals, the investor might want to lock in profits by selling covered calls. If a price dips so low that it appears ridiculous in light of strong company fundamentals, as was the case with SNDK this week, then the long term investor might want to add stock, sell put options with an expiration date of at least three months (to take advantage of the premium), or buy call options for the current or immediately succeeding month. Thus, someone who bought a call on Thursday morning, when the stock price was around 43, with an expiration date for today and a striking price of 45 or even 50, had a better than average chance of ending up on the winning side of the n-person game. But today, because of worrisome producer price data and another idiotic speech of Greenspan last night (neither events are random, unfortunately), the whole market could go down. Art