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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: taxman who wrote (30625)	10/14/1999 8:07:00 PM
From: Jim Lamb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Microsoft Seen Posting Higher Net By Martin Wolk SEATTLE (Reuters) - Software giant Microsoft Corp (Nasdaq:MSFT - news). is expected to report strong earnings growth for its latest quarter, but ``blowout' results are unlikely in part because of a year 2000-related slowdown, industry analysts said Thursday. On average Microsoft, which is scheduled to report its Tuesday, is expected to post earnings of 34 cents per share, up from 28 cents a year earlier, according to First Call. Analysts contacted by Reuters said they expect the company to report revenues of about $5.2 billion for the quarter, up from last year's $4.2 billion. While analysts said Microsoft probably would beat the consensus estimate by a few pennies per share, as it generally does, they did not expect a major upside surprise in light of repeated conservative guidance from Chief Financial Officer Greg Maffei. ``I'm not expecting a blowout,' said Rick Sherlund of Goldman Sachs. A Microsoft spokesman declined to comment on expectations for earnings beyond guidance Maffei gave in July. At the time Maffei suggested analysts hold their earnings estimates for fiscal 2000 unchanged even though the company beat expectations for the fourth quarter of 1999 by 3 cents a share. On average analysts expect fiscal 2000 earnings of $1.56 a share, compared with $1.39 in fiscal 1999, according to First Call. Sherlund and other analysts said Microsoft will benefit from strong worldwide sales of personal computers and a continuing shift to its higher-priced Windows NT desktop operating system, but sales of the new Office 2000 productivity suite are seen as falling in line with expectations. ``While Office is probably selling according to plan, there is a chance it's just not going to deliver that upside punch and kick it normally does,' said Bill Epifanio of J.P. Morgan. He said Microsoft's stock could suffer in the aftermath, depending on the tone of Maffei's comments, and he recommended buying the stock on any weakness. Microsoft, which peaked at just over $100 a share in July, closed at $90.75 Thursday, off 31 cents in heavy Nasdaq trading. ``Whereas I am very bullish about fiscal 2000 as a whole for Microsoft, if there is one quarter that is likely to be slow it is the first quarter,' Epifanio said. The September quarter typically is seasonally slow for Microsoft, and this year is projected to show a 10 percent sequential decline from earnings in the fourth quarter of fiscal 1999. Office 2000, the latest upgrade of the market-dominating bundle of word processing, spreadsheet and communication software, formally went on sale June 7 and normally would be expected to produce a sizable spike in revenues in its first full quarter of sales. But analysts said many corporate buyers apparently are delaying any plans to upgrade until next year so they can devote more resources to preparing for any impact from the year 2000 computer bug. ``It's a bit of an awkward year to be upgrading your Office suite of products,' Sherlund said. Epifanio added that some buyers might be waiting for the release of Microsoft's Windows 2000 operating system, expected by the end of this year, which could spark a major hardware and software upgrade cycle.

To: taxman who wrote (30625)	10/14/1999 8:11:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Respond to of 74651

taxman: From a post on the Yahoo board I worry about what greenspan said tonight, "Banks need to prepare for a sharp decline in stock prices. He also said he didn't expect this to happen but they need to be prepared. " This market will have trouble going up after this news. Greenspan just keeps pushing, we would be better off for him to raise rates by 1/2 point than to keep this junk up. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted Ballmer and Greenspan are a regular tag team match. What kind of irresponsible talk is this? He is actually undermining the credibility of the US markets. I mean isn't he satisfied withthe already hyper nervous state of the market. The guy is nuts and I am beginning to get a little nervous myself when he keeps mouthing off like this. How does one prepare by going to cash and causing the market to collapse as sellers abound and buyers dry up. Now if everyone goes to cash the problem is even further exacerbated. This guy is nuts! JFD

To: taxman who wrote (30625)	10/14/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: Bill Holtzman	Respond to of 74651

Guess I should've asked Greenspan which way to play the options. I still love the guy but it sure is a bitch to endure these gyrations at his cue.

To: taxman who wrote (30625)	10/14/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Greenspan did not say anything unusual as far as i can tell. If he was actually serious, he would have started cutting rates in October. A tightening bias at the last meeting does not seem to suggest he is that concerned about equity prices. He would try to prevent crashes instead of trying to act afterwards like 1987. His comments are no big deal. A guy that thought stocks were overvalued in 1996 is not very reliable in determining stock values in 1999.