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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (65827)	10/14/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: stan s.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 90042

Hi Tim. >>>.what are your short term thoughts on the market<<< I'll give you my thoughts before Greenspan's speech came out, I have not had time to reflect on whether it will cause more than a knee jerk downturn or something more ominous. I've felt that the last correction was cut short and still needed to complete. The hype around the FOMC cut it short and now earnings are interfering. Earnings are coming in very nicely, especially for the techs. Since that's what most of us are interested in that's what I'm commenting on. The Dow is bloated and frankly as long as it continues to diverge a bit from the Naz etc. I don't mind seeing it struggle. The problem is it historically has been a leading indicator for the markets. Anyway, ignoring that for the moment...the Naz has looked very strong. It continues to ride strong uptrend lines...several successive higher tops and bottoms. In other words I like it!! At the moment I'm a little concerned because it's in a confusing pattern....wedge, ascending triangle...but not quite either. I want it to hold that uptrend line...if it does, we're fine. Today was a big test, tomorrow will be bigger. If the trend line holds, I think we get a nice short term pop...in conjunction with the continued earnings upside surprises. Then when earnings are over......bang......>>>>>a correction<<<<<, nothing to panic about but a good time to have some cash.......before a pretty decent end of year rally. I don't see anything too serious...normal corrections 10-20% followed by strong surges. My opinion only...but right now, I'll admit, I am very concerned about tomorrow morning given the nature of the markets seeming reaction (speech) and as kathy alluded to the "desire to sell off" mentality. And to any lurkers...I never put more than 10% of trading money into a trading stock...so if I'm fully invested, I have 10 stocks and they are diversified and I dump 'em when the charts go sour i.e., if they fail to hold support or if they fail at resistance etc. Stan