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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (29322)	10/14/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA..yeah she'd be on trannys every day hahahahahaha and i was NOT kidding..your way to bright, and i'm, well??? what am i?? heh heh heh...ah lemme see...hmmmm intuative?????<G>... well if the freakin PPI comes in bad...i guess the next stop is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAy down!!! and where she stops, who da freak knows..we'll see PUKE city for sure, and a Billion and 1/2 in one day down 1000(a grand)..that WILL be the bottom... when the smoke clears...everyone will be stunned... and both GZ and Paddy, have been pounding the tables for weeks now..in Fact Patrick mentioned this a month or so ago...in his own way<g>...i think he said he was "concerned"...holy shit..i wonder what if he said...CRASH!!!!! whew!!!! this could get very nasty...very!!!

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (29322)	10/15/1999 3:21:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

I think it is a great article on managing risk and is quite academic.. like this <<Probability distributions estimated largely, or exclusively, over cycles that do not include periods of panic will underestimate the likelihood of extreme price movements because they fail to capture a secondary peak at the extreme negative tail that reflects the probability of occurrence of a panic. Furthermore, joint distributions estimated over periods that do not include panics will underestimate correlations between asset returns during panics. Under these circumstances, fear and disengagement on the part of investors holding net long positions often lead to simultaneous declines in the values of private obligations, as investors no longer realistically differentiate among degrees of risk and liquidity, and to increases in the values of riskless government securities. Consequently, the benefits of portfolio diversification will tend to be overestimated when the rare panic periods are not taken into account. >> reference to last year LTCM.. I would assume that it is being read completely out of context... the market direction as we all know will be determined by economic releases, the futres are down big nearly 15 but the real test is today's numbers.