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Technology Stocks : BroadVision (BVSN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (2150)	10/15/1999 12:06:00 AM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3773

Lets try to put a valuation on BVSN, again. (long) Different industries have different ways of working out a reasonable stock price. E.g., ConEd - you'll think of earnings and dividend; Cable - cash flow; Retailer - same store growth, margins, etc. There is industry growth rate (raw, relative to S&P). Then, there are non-industry-specific factors. E.g., the short and long interest rates, inflation, GDP rate, etc. Some numbers matter more to some industries. E.g., a REIT is very sensitive to interest rates. A retailer may also pay attention to Consumer Confidence numbers. And so on. For an enterprise software company, the single biggest factor is becoming a de facto standard. Like, Adobe is to laser printers. A mistake here and there, you are still in the game. Lots of mistakes, well, look what happened to Xerox. But the key factor is acceptability. When your sales team has more sales engineers than salesmen. Salespersons, I suppose. The margins are there, and pretty soon every sale pretty much goes to both the top line and the bottom line. At that point the Price-to-Sales may look obscene but PE may still look reasonable. So, what's the real value of BVSN ? Well, you can work that out yourself. If, in round numbers, $500mm rev, $200mm net, and $4000mm cap satisfies you, so be it. It's a flat curve from what you can see into the future. Longs will have different opinion. That's why we got a thread! But do yourself a favor. Check into the help-wanted sections of SJMN, NYT and DICE. DICE alone has 525 jobs that list Broadvision as a key skill. Some pay as much as $175/hour. oh, yeah. the journey is the goal. -Dinesh