To: Robert Douglas who wrote (107 ) 10/15/1999 6:41:00 AM From: Sam Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 488
Robert and all, It was, I thought, a very good call, with many of the issues that I wanted to hear about discussed. They addressed the AIT/M2/LTO debate at some length, making it pretty clear that they consider LTO to be more formidable competition than either M2 or AIT (the 8 mm competition). I'm afraid I don't have time to post notes right now, but will try to get to them later today. Unhappily, the EXBT CC expired before I had a chance to listen to it (just tried a few minutes ago). Maybe next time. OT below Robert, The article below expresses the cause of my concern about stock prices. AG is all but screaming at us that stock prices will be lower. Thursday October 14 7:12 PM ET Banks Must Prepare For Risks-Greenspan WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday that banks and other financial institutions should do more to prepare for the possibility of a sharp downturn in the prices of stocks and other assets. While emphasizing he was not predicting such a downturn, Greenspan told a banking-related conference that losses in investors' confidence 'will inevitably emerge from time to time' and said financial institutions should boost their reserves to account of that possibility. He said diversification among different types of assets -- a common strategy used by portfolio managers to guard against market risks -- may not be sufficient to account for all types of scenarios in which the value of their investments might cause losses. 'At a minimum, risk managers need to stress test the assumptions underlying their models and set aside somewhat higher contingency resources -- reserves or capital -- to cover the losses,' he said in prepared remarks. The Fed chairman noted that equity premiums -- the amount of return investors demand to cover the risks associated with investing in stocks -- had declined in recent years but he said it was unclear why. He said that the professionals at financial institutions who specialize in risk management should take this factor into account in the event that investors' are not giving adequate weight to the risk associated with holding stocks. 'The decline in recent years in the equity premium ... should prompt careful consideration of the robustness of our portfolio risk-management models in the event this judgement proves wrong,' he said.