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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (9302)	10/15/1999 5:18:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: It is not so much what he is saying as it is his timing. In fact, he has given this speech (more or less) at least once before this year to my recollection. But why did he choose to drive the theme home now at a time when the market is so vulnerable? Was he trying to send a message in his repetition of this theme and in the timing of the speech? The market obviously thinks this is the case as is indicated by the futures. It is so ironic that one year ago today he saved the market and today he may very well tank it.

To: marc ultra who wrote (9302)	10/15/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc, I have a completely different view of the target for AG's talk last night. (extracted from my Dell thread post) I'm amazed at how willing so many are to misinterpret Alan Greenspan. AG has given this same speech to that same Audience for at least 2 years now. Perhaps longer, I just started reading all Alan's speeches and most of the other Fed Governor's speeches about 2 to 3 years ago. Yesterday, I believe, was the first time that the bulk of the speech was on equity risk premiums. It would appear to me that AG's concern is with the financial system and its liquidity. He's concerned, IMO, that a sudden contraction in liquidity would have a serious negative affect on the economy. And he's asked the key influencers of liquidity to reconsider what equity premium risks they use in their financial models. e.g. - with a little less now, should there be a shock at some point in the future, then these same institutions will have larger reserves, be better able to withstand the shock, and be better able to preserve adequate liquidity. So I suspect that he's just looking for a little help. He doesn't want to have to do 3 emergency easings in 6 weeks again. He'd rather have the Financial Institutions help him take a little bit of preventive action instead. Yet we have justa buncharavenlunatics who've just read their 2nd Fed speech losing the game of 'fraidy-cat'.