Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (9303)	10/15/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

I think one thing we need to stay focused on when interpreting any remarks by Greenspan is that he has that disturbing CIBCR trend as part of his background thinking. Thus regardless of his original motives I suspect one message he might have given is you need to be prepared to deal with the inherent risk of financial panic without expecting a Fed bailout like what occurred last year. Part of the complacency in this market has been the false belief by many investors that the market can't get real bad since the Fed would jump in again and cut rates. I think the issue is what the definition of real bad is. Under current conditions I don't see the Fed in any hurry cutting with a 30% drop in the market. If we get to around 40% and an obvious resulting slowing in the economy is seen, the Fed would then have to consider moving depending on their view of inflation at the time. That being said I think an awful lot of investors are carrying a fairly high cash position lately and the usual pattern of a strong market from Nov 1st to May 1st is likely to be seen again as we approach the end of the year here. Marc