Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andeveron who wrote (43996)	10/15/1999 8:15:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

FWIW: Consider the Context of Greenspan's Words By James J. Cramer 10/15/99 7:10 AM ET Last fall, as rumors swirled of major problems at Long Term Capital, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gave a hawkish speech about risk premiums and the need to be tough on lending standards. I remember vividly reading the speech, outside in Philadelphia, across the street from the Liberty Bell. October Chill: Join the discussion on TSC Message Boards. We had taken "Squawk Box" on the road that morning, and I was a proud son introducing my dad to the gang of that great show. Kathleen Hays had informed me that things were looking terrible in the market because of this Greenspan speech. I huddled with my dad and said that Greenspan's got it all wrong. He is being tough when he should be gentle. I told him the speech spooked me. I called our trading desk and wanted out of a bunch of things. Given the worries in the credit markets at the time, Greenspan's speech couldn't have been more poorly timed. He was talking sternly at the very moment when the credit markets were begging for easing, less the heavily leveraged hedge fund world would have to sell lower-rated bonds into an unwilling market. It seemed really stupid. I had been looking for an ease because of the stress in the system. This speech kiboshed that. It contributed to my decision last year to get out at what amounted to the bottom, because I figured Greenspan was going to crush us. I thought he had us in his crosshairs and was definitely done easing. I thought our goose was cooked. Wrong! Soon after, Greenspan eased dramatically. His speech bore no relevance to what he did. I trusted his words, not his deeds, and I played the market wrong. I played him wrong. Last night, I read Greenspan's speech in the link from TheStreet.com's late-breaking story about it. The talk was a balanced speech, and it seemed to make a lot of sense to me. But as soon as I saw the tulip-bulb reference, I figured the futures were down 12 points. Haven't lost my edge -- they were down 11. Last year, if I had considered the context of Greenspan's speech, which was simply an alert that he likes to be tough against inflation, maybe I would not have been as bearish at the bottom. This year, I am considering that context. He was speaking in front of banking regulators. He was not going to tell them, "Ease up, gentlemen. Turn the spigot on." He was not going to say, "Get long -- this market is oversold." He was not going to bless any level of equities. He was going to talk tough about inflation. That's his job. So, send the market down. It was in weak shape anyway. But if you are selling because of this speech, you are doing what I did last year. We know that's wrong. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- thestreet.com

To: Andeveron who wrote (43996)	10/15/1999 8:19:00 AM
From: wanmore	Respond to of 94695

As contrarian as I am (sold all my Oct puts yesterday while we were down and bought EBAY calls) I would think this is the BK if these PPI #'s even give us a slightly negative suprise. I have decided to get short again if I see even the slightest recovery from this mornings open (5 or 10 points on the NASDAQ). I will even get short Octobers for the day if I see something that has done a little TOO well in the past few days. The only ones that comes to mind at the moment is EMLX, KIDE, and TDS but I have another hour or so to check into it further

To: Andeveron who wrote (43996)	10/16/1999 7:58:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

I think many people misunderstand what AG means when he uses the word 'bubble.' I think he's talking about investors or speculators that are heavily margined.. margined way over their heads.... this kind of sell off will wash out those speculators before the markets get 'too high' what ever that might mean to AG. I think next week the blood bath will begin in earnest. European money managers will see that U.S. markets have broken support and they'll dump their holdings both here and there..... GZ