To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (1143 ) 10/22/1999 2:22:00 PM From: Beltropolis Boy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1686
hot off the presses: "JP Morgan goes out on limb -- practically flips coin!" -----Biogen Shares Fall After It Halts Antova Drug Trials 10/22/99 10:04:00 AM Source: Bloomberg News Cambridge, Massachusetts, Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Shares in Biogen Inc., one of the world's biggest biotech companies, fell as much as 14 percent after the company said it halted most trials of its experimental drug Antova because some patients suffered blood clots. Shares fell 8 3/4 to 63 13/16 in midday trading of 13.2 million, almost six times the stock's three-month daily average. The stock was the sixth most active on U.S. markets. Antova, designed to treat immune-response-related diseases like lupus and organ-transplant rejection, is one of two experimental Biogen drugs analysts say could become blockbuster products. The other, psoriasis treatment Amevive, is about to begin late-stage trials. Biogen's announcement yesterday sparked concern that it will have trouble developing products to keep profits growing. "We give it a better than 50-50 chance that we aren't going to see a restart of Antova studies," said Franklin Berger, a biotechnology analyst with J.P. Morgan Securities. "There is a lot of work to be done." Berger downgraded his rating on Biogen's stock this morning to a "market perform" from a "buy." He said that the delay or loss of sales for Antova could make it difficult for the company to meet growth expectations in coming years. Biogen issued a statement late yesterday saying it's stopped trials for Antova for treating multiple sclerosis, patients with a hemophilia-related condition called Factor VIII inhibitor and recipients of pancreatic-cell transplants.Risk for Other Drug The snag in Antova's development also highlights the risks in bringing any new drug to market -- risks which could still affect Biogen's other key drug, Amevive, analysts said. "People rightly or wrongly say, 'If this could happen to Antova, it could happen to Amevive,'" said Craig Parker, a Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette analyst with a "buy" recommendation on Biogen. "Everybody's perception of risk in the whole pipeline goes up." The company, which also makes Avonex, the world's best- selling multiple sclerosis treatment, this month said it was testing Antova in six so-called Phase 2 trials, the second of three stages of testing that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration generally requires before it will consider approving a new treatment.Hopes for Two Drugs Neither Antova nor Amevive has entered the final stages of study, and the drugs weren't expected to contribute to Biogen sales until 2002 or 2003. Still, the two drugs together were expected to make up for an anticipated slowdown in the sales growth for Avonex, which Berger expects to have a sales increase of about 57 percent in 1999. Biogen said it's not clear whether the blood-clotting is connected to its drug. The company said that many of the patients taking the experimental medicine were already at high risk for potentially life-threatening blood clots, though it's working with the FDA to investigate the situation. Still, with problems occurring in more than 5 percent of all patients and across several different uses, the clotting poses a significant roadblock. And researchers don't understand the clotting problem yet, which could make it harder to isolate and address any role Antova plays, Berger said. "Amevive and Antova allowed us to look forward to keeping the price-to-earnings ratio high," said Berger of J.P. Morgan Securities. "With the loss of Antova, we lost one of the legs of the tripod." Kidney transplant patients can continue taking the drug, as can patients suffering from a blood disorder called immune thrombocytopenic purpura. Biogen said it and the FDA are still discussing whether patients with lupus can continue taking the therapy.