Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (53085)	10/15/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael H (TCMS) - I got in yesterday, but thinking about adding more today. Did you notice that 64K block on the buy side at 3? I'd look for it to rally easily back to 4 within a few weeks.

To: The Ox who wrote (53085)	10/15/1999 3:58:00 PM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 95453

ANALYSIS - Oilmen debate - When will reserves run dry? By William Maclean LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The world's biggest oil find for years has given awestruck experts hope that Mother Earth might yield more giant fields to energy-hungry humanity. A 26 billion barrel structure announced by Iran suggests unsurprisingly that most future undiscovered oil lies in the Gulf, already the storehouse of most known petroleum reserves. But how long explorers can go on making significant finds remains a key concern of governments and energy firms, for whom oil's projected life span is a tantalising long-term riddle. No one disputes that more will be found on top of the 1,053 billion barrels of known global recoverable reserves, sufficient for 40 years of consumption at current rates. But sizing that undiscovered oil has long amounted to mere informed speculation. Discrepancies between estimates of future finds vary widely, equating to decades of global demand, and are distorted by differing assumptions about oil prices and technical progress. Some geologists brim with optimism, arguing that oil giants Iran and Iraq are seriously underexplored because years of war and sanctions have isolated them from Western oil expertise. ``The Middle East has beautiful petroleum systems,' said Tom Ahlbrandt, world energy project chief at the U.S. Geological Survey, commenting on Iran's Azadegan find unveiled last month. ``I think there will be more of those discoveries -- in Iran, Iraq and the Empty Quarter (of Saudi Arabia),' he told Reuters. SCEPTICS SEE HYPE IN SOME RESERVE FIGURES Others are sceptical, although even these experts expect the Gulf has tens of billions more barrels to find. ``There tends to be a lot of hype. The biggest oilfields in the Middle East have all been found,' argues geologist Colin Campbell, a stern critic of the industry's reserve optimists. Yet Campbell agrees that even if only a fifth of Azadegan is recoverable the volume would equal all new oil found throughout the world on average every year -- some six billion barrels. Azadegan dwarfs the top finds in today's exploration hotspots like West Africa, and is the world's largest find since Russia found the 5.5 billion barrel Priobye in 1982. Campbell says the world has yet to find 163 billion barrels of conventional oil excluding condensates, gas liquids or oil from shale or sands -- about six years of global consumption. He says 50 billion of this lies in the Gulf, with Saudi yet to yield 20 billion, Iraq 16 billion, Iran eight billion, Kuwait three billion and the United Arab Emirates over three billion. Among other regions, the former Soviet Union, China and Eastern Europe will yield about 46 billion, with Latin America and Africa providing 20 billion and 12 billion respectively. Campbell estimates Gulf producers' known reserves are well below official figures -- pegging Saudi at 210 billion (versus an official 261 billion), Iraq 90 billion (112), Iran 62 billion (89), Kuwait 55 billion (96) and the UAE 60 billion (98). Some in the oil industry are sympathetic to Campbell's view, pointing to a declining finding rate over the past 10 years and a suspiciously sharp upgrade in reserve estimates by some in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the 1980s. The upgrade was intended to update reserve figures that were deliberately understated by Western majors for regulatory reasons when they ran the fields earlier in the century. But the new figures undoubtedly added clout to each Gulf petroleum power as they haggled at OPEC quota negotiations. ``Oil reserves are a form of power. You can never be sure what these claims amount to,' Campbell says. One expert industry view is that Iran, for example, has real recoverable known reserves of only about 45 billion, but that the country could double that figure through new exploration. IRAQ WORLD'S MOST PROSPECTIVE PLAY In contrast, Peter Odell, former director of the Centre for International Energy Studies at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, is bullish about the industry's ability to find new oil and says the issue of the size of unfound reserves is not critical. Ahlbrandt is sure many prolific fields remain to be found there and also says known formations can yield yet more if developed with modern seismic and drilling technology. Most experts call Iraq the world's most prospective country. ``Iraq could not only double but treble the present proven reserves from development of existing fields and exploration,' Tariq Shafiq of Petrolog & Associates said in an interview. Saad Jassim, of the Earth Sciences Department at Britain's Leeds University, estimates Iraq alone has 217 billion barrels of additional oil to be added from both new discoveries and development of new horizons in existing fields. He also estimates Iran has almost as much oil to find and develop mainly in its southwestern oil heartland near the Gulf. Jassim says Saudi Arabia's most undeveloped Empty Quarter has ``huge potential' although both decline to estimate a number. ``This area of the oil world is going to remain preeminent,' says Ahlbrandt. biz.yahoo.com

To: The Ox who wrote (53085)	10/15/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

michael: We are on the same wavelength. Several times this year I have posted that I expected a big stock market drop this fall. I don't think many took me seriously. Well -- just as with my bullish gold call --look whose laughing now. I have a substantial position in the most leveraged bear fund -- USPIX. Probably up 5-6% today after a similar rise yesterday. But the good news for energy investors is that oil services are acting EXTREMLEY WELL in this market debacle. I have not sold any of my newly acquired position in FSESX and plan to buy a lot more early next week. My position in USPIX has enabled me to ride out the storm in great shape. And I am 99% convinced that the oil service stocks will SURGE WHEN THE MARKET REGAINS ITS FOOTING.