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To: Defrocked who wrote (69305)	10/15/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: John Dally	Respond to of 86076

Hi Def, You've got my sympathy. You're dealing with one of the most annoying people around. -ng- You are dealing with an unrepentant thread polluter, or TP ©. -g- Best regards, John. PS: Thank you for your timely market reports and insight!

To: Defrocked who wrote (69305)	10/15/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 86076

Bedtime tales....... Prices rallied accordingly, and subwave iv topped at 10,719 on October 11, just 1% above our target resistance. Subwave v since then has drawn the index toward 10,000 as we go to press, yet the subdivisions of the near-term pattern suggest the fifth wave has not yet bottomed. The very bearish message conveyed by the pattern in the NASDAQ ) suggests that another way to label the decline from the August 25 all-time high is as a series of first and second waves (see inset of chart). This would place the position of the market as entering a "third-of-third" wave decline, the steepest portion of an Elliott wave sequence. The potential payoff from our bearish stance is accen-tuated by the fact that the next two trading days will be 55 calendar days from the print high of August 24 and closing high of August 25, which makes them prime dates for a crash. Studies by Steve Puetz (The Steve Puetz Letter, Lafayette, IN, 765-463-3705) have shown that numerous market crashes have occurred 55 days after the top. I we have continually noted this relationship and stated that for a crash alert to be sounded, the 55 th day after a Dow peak -must be preceded by several days of persistent price weakness.- The October 11-15 Dow decline of almost 700 points certainly sounds the alarm. No matter how oversold the market appears, the potential for extraordinary declines on October 18 and 19 (Monday and Tuesday) is extremely high. A near-term low is likely by October 25. Here?s one way to gauge the action. The weakest clos-ing daily NYSE advance/decline ratio since the Dow high had 3.4 declines for each advance on September 21, right in the middle of subwave v, as we should expect to see in our preferred count. A day with weaker than 3.4-to-1 declining vs. advancing issues would be a strong clue that the Dow was is in the midst of a larger third wave sell-off.

To: Defrocked who wrote (69305)	10/16/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 86076

One wise man said: <<he sounds like he thinks he KNOWS something....>> #reply-11471969 Looks like you have had a field day! -g- I have to get back to work! -ng-

To: Defrocked who wrote (69305)	10/16/1999 6:49:00 AM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Defrocked, At 10:35 AM, after digesting both the Greenspan speech as well as the PPI report, bond buyers are too early in your opinion. Message 11560745 Then, of course, once a large buyer of bonds emerged around 2:30 pm, driving yields down several basis points, the possibility of a slowdown - to the extent of an inverted yield curve, talk about swinging too far in the other direction! - dawned on you at 5:30 pm. Wow! Such predictive powers must serve you well in your trading. By your own admission if they [the bond traders] would have bought this morning [they would have made] to the tune of $1,000 per contract at CBOT. The market is humbling, isn't it? <VBG> Anyway, given this amazing level of foresight that you displayed yesterday, tell me why anyone should take your future predictions of an inverted yield curve, or anything else related to the market, the Fed, whatever, with any seriousness? [I know that you prefer that no reference be made to your bad market calls, and that you be treated as a market maven in spite of those, so I apologize for bringing this to light. Seriously.] As for professionals, someone was buying when the last 700 points were gained over the previous few weeks, and someone was selling when the last 700 points were lost over this week. Do you really feel that mutual fund ownership of stocks has significantly changed over that period? (Remember, they are the professionals that count, as the retail daytrading crowd and other motley small timers control a very small section of both short term trading and long term ownership.) If yes, then who is holding the sold equities? Retail crowd? Ho, ho, ho! -BGR. PS: BTW, within 45 minutes of promising never to post to me for something like the 152'nd time, you made 3 rapid fire posts in response to a lone post of mine. With this amazing display of self control and consistency of position, now I know why you are such a successful short term trader. Hehehe ... stick to after the fact flip flop trading, Defrocked! You have quite a future there. Hold your retirement index funds, though.