To: KyrosL who wrote (35562 ) 10/16/1999 10:07:00 AM From: Mehrdad Arya Respond to of 45548
TAUB TALK: Dreyfus' Top Tech Value Picks editor: Steve Taub 10/15/99 Here's Dreyfus' dilemma. The fund management company runs one of the most successful funds around-Dreyfus Premier Technology Growth (NASDAQ:DTGRX - news) . The fund was up 67% through Wednesday and was up 98% in 1998. However, Dreyfus is getting nervous that its customers are not diversified enough. So it's trying to coax investors to think value. As in value funds. In fact, on Thursday it trotted out its value team to espouse the virtues of low-priced, under recognized names to the press. Trouble is, its most prestigious value fund specializes in-you guessed it-tech stocks. For example, this year, the Dreyfus Midcap Value (NASDAQ:DMCVX - news) fund is up about 14%, way outperforming the Russell value indexes, which are down a few percentage points. 'Tech names were very depressed last fall,' recalls manager Peter Higgins, who is also a senior v.p. at The Boston Co., which like Dreyfus is part of the Mellon Bank (NYSE:MEL - news) . 'Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies have done very well.' And although Higgins says he's lightening up on tech stocks because many of them have risen a lot, he still likes a handful. But, be careful. Value managers in general wind up with a motley mix of struggling companies. And this is especially true when it comes to technology stocks, since the good ones very rarely qualify for value managers' portfolios. For example, disk drive maker Quantum HDD (NYSE:HDD - news) . The company is losing wads of money. In fact, on Thursday it reported a $49 million loss for the most recent quarter, excluding special charges. The stock closed Thursday at $6. However, Higgins says there is very little downside risk here given that it has $3 alone in net cash per share and its book value is $9. Competitor Maxtor (NASDAQ:MXTR - news) is nearly as appealing. Its stock closed at $5.81, just three times its $2 per share in net cash. It also trades at just five times sales, Higgins notes. Another downtrodden company he likes is Ingram-Micro (NYSE:IM - news) . The computer products distributor closed Thursday at $12.69, way down from its 52-week high of $50.38. 'It's difficult to figure a catalyst' for the stock, Higgins concedes. However, he notes that over the past four years the stock typically traded at 20% of sales, at the low end. But, right now it is trading at just 5% of estimated 2000 revenue. 'It stumbled. It's looking for a new CEO. But with Tech Data (NASDAQ:TECD - news) it is among the top players,' he notes. In fact, he also likes Tech Data, which he thinks will earn $3 per share in 2000. It closed Thursday at $23.38, or less than eight times Higgins' estimate for 2000. Both companies are being hurt by a fierce price war in Europe. But Higgins doesn't expect things to get much worse. Another tech favorite: 3Com (NASDAQ:COMS - news) . 'The company is breaking itself up,' he notes. Its first step: Taking public its Palm hand-held computer business. This business alone is worth $15 per share, Higgins figures. The company has another $5-6 per share in net cash. So, we're already at roughly $20 per share. The stock closed Thursday at $30.31. This means its networking and modem businesses combined are being valued at roughly $10 per share. Meanwhile the company has a great balance sheet and is an aggressive buyer of its own shares. Higgins figures the entire company is worth closer to $50 a pop. Finally, there's Sterling Commerce (NYSE:SE - news) , which specializes in products for business-to-business e-commerce. It closed at $21.94. Yet Higgins expects the company to earn $1.75 per share in 2000. Over the next five years, it is expected to grow by 25% per year. In addition, it bought back 20% of its stock in the past 6-9 months, Higgins notes. What's more, on October 5 it announced that it would beat Wall Street consensus estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended in September. As a result, Robertson Stephens upgraded the stock. So, who needs crummy old Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO - news) , right?