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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gaj who wrote (30138)	10/16/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Greg Jung	Respond to of 99985

" at least one more big down day next week" one MORE big down day? We haven't had a big down day this year! Yesterday stocks in general took either a 2% cut (most in the bear market) a 4% cut (financials) with some exceptions (Selected stocks such as K-swiss are getting smashed). None of the "love you" stocks have taken much of any one-day hits and if they do I assure you it is a quick-trade buy. China is off the radar screen, if it were to devalue tomorrow that would surely surprise but they have already effectively devalued relative to the yen and currency devaluation has been on back burner for two years, now. a) won't happen b) wouldn't do much to dispel the "buying opportunity" complacency that will persist. In fact I don't see how it would make much difference except possibly lowering our trade deficit. I think the stock market will stay in this sort of stasis until we see in hingsight that a recession or uncontrolled slow-down is underway. There is too little analysis of future scenarios that isn't simple two-point "trend" extrapolation. "Never mind if 90% of stocks are in bear market, those are 'your' stocks, the 20 good stocks are doing just fine, you're just too much of a skinflint to buy them!" will be the continuing theme of the Blodgets, Acamporas, Byrinis for some time. We'll make it through next week with the usual October post-expiry hangovers and proceed to more boring consolidation plus tax-loss sales. No meltdown. We are already in bear market, just 80% of the trading capital goes to the techmania.