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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (13534)	10/17/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande Is: Crack investor that I am, I missed a great opportunity to buy back into some of the telecom chip stocks I was tracking when the market tanked at the open on Friday Oct. 15th. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, etc. I am referring to stocks like: CIEN, AMCC, PMCS, RFMD. Despite the sell-off, they later went strongly into the green over the course of the day (which is why I want to own them in the first place!!). In your opinion, do you think there will be another opportunity to buy these stocks at lower prices over the next two weeks or should I start accumulating them. I am hoping for a weak Monday (continuation of Friday sell-off) and threatening CPI numbers on Tuesday to give me a second chance and provide a bottom to this correction. What is your take on the next month leading up to the Nov. 16 Fed meeting? I intend to be fully invested before the Fed meeting; as you stated, the next rate hike is already priced into the market and the Fed meeting will be anti-climatic as far as the market is concerned. Any and all opinions on the above are welcome!

To: Rande Is who wrote (13534)	10/17/1999 9:31:00 AM
From: Trumptown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Nice post Rande...! Here's two additional thoughts that are worth a read... Message 11572528 Message 11576898 This year continues to mimic last year...Novermber should be good... SR

To: Rande Is who wrote (13534)	10/17/1999 10:13:00 AM
From: Pied Piper	Respond to of 57584

. . .and the Y2K "problem" is a phantom problem that was NEEDED and USED for hundreds of different reasons . . . some true, most false. . .but all sold books. Nicely put, Rande. Along with many other software developers, I have been saying something like this to people for the last couple of years. Seems like the "deaf ears" are now listening and the "problem" is being seen for what it is, a lot of hype and millenium fever. Piper

To: Rande Is who wrote (13534)	10/17/1999 3:40:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Some thoughts on your nice post. 1. Alan has established a new economics. With a little help from Rubin. Economists are a generally a bunch of highly trained PhD's. They also try to be somewhat scientific. This knowledge that he has that has steered the economy so well comes from many thinkers in the field and the repository is much larger than one man. When Einstein left the scene, quantum mechanics continued without him. And Alan is no Einstein. Alan had the courage and power to make the experiment. It seems to have succeeded in the eyes of many, so it won't take much courage to follow him down the same road. He has established his economics so well that he can easily be replaced. This is the mark of any good leader. BTW I am not a huge fan. Things could have been done differently, but he has succeeded by any measure. Same goes true with Clinton/Rubin IMHO. 2. He is slowing growth, steadily. He will slow the economy to a brief halt if he feels it necessary. But, I can't imagine negative growth or long-term flat growth. For those who whine at every tightening, seeing no need for soft landings, imagine how things would be if he hadn't tightened the last two times. We would have been at DOW 14000 and gone to Dow 9500 in a minute.... 3. y2k....So far the actual result of y2k has been a diversion of resources to fix a widespread and potentially damaging bug. The other effect is the media coverage effect. The diversion of resources will continue well into 2000. No bug fix comes without bugs. However, I agree with you about the actual effects. If there were real problems they would have already caused real damage this year as almost any database is dealing with y2k dates already. The worse we hear about from the media right now is the Maine DMV calling Model year 2000 cars "horseless carriages" on the registration. It is off the front page for now. But the media effect is still a wild card. Will the press decide to sell their wares with y2k? My hope is that the change into a new millenium will be compelling enough as a story all by itself to keep the y2k story off the front page. Beyond that we have the anarchists who will inevitably try to exploit the weakened IT structure on January 1. Will they succeed by concentrating their chaotic forces all at the same time? It seems that the IT professionals are also concentrating all of their resources on this date as well, so hopefully they will be ready enough to minimize damage. Few will boot up their computers for the first time in 200 without some form of protection. Hopefully you are right as usual and this period from April 1999 until January 2000 will serve as a nice consolidation for a new breakout in the millenium. I think that is what you are looking for... The biggest problem is the banks and their lame-brained lending protocols...