Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (30172)	10/16/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To all that wrote, good points and rather than address them all I will as usual only respond to those I disagree with or can add something meaningful to. As far as No way in the world could we drop 40-60%. Get real, this is EXACTLY the attitude we are talking about here. No one thinks it can happen. We may not do so in the immediate future but at some point, it is highly likely we will do so. Take any stock at random that has not been on the darling list and look at a long term chart. I think that is our future for the major indexes. We may not drop 50% in a matter of days or weeks although we could, instead it will be like the IT companies, RUT, the Bank index, the dollar, Japan etc etc. Long grinding down series of lower lows and lower highs that could take months or years before bottoming. Not saying it will happen now but it will most likely happen unless we can stall in a trading range and wait for earnings to catch up but I doubt it. If rates keep rising, eventually people will have to cash out of some holdings to pay off some of that HUGE credit card debt and won't be able to afford to finance those 40K trucks much less fill them up at the gas station. People invest right now and run up credit because they can get more gains inthe market than they are paying in credit fees. Once the pace of gains slow down, the flow will reverse. Max90 - You may be right but be careful trying to play the stronger sectors. The NDX is one of the few indexes that still hasn't broken through it's double bottom in P&F according to my charts. EBAY is almost impossible to chart for me. During it's drop, it defied all support levels that IO could find so my faith in predicting that one is nill. As for Clinton, there is a multi-year delay in the programs of a president. I am actually hoping a Democrat wins the election since most people don't realize this and will blame the next President for the pain that Clinton has caused. This booming cycle was produced through policies started in the Reagan and Bush era. It just took a while for Clinton to screw it all up. It is sad because being military, of course I want a Republican that will start paying us again, giving us back the retirement and healthcare promised to us 15 years ago and stolen by Clinton. As far as the market, I just finished updating my site and it dont' look real good. I have short term over sold signals on almost all the indexes except surprisingly the DOW and the NASDAQ but almost all the sector indexes and the SPX is triggering short term over sold signals only. The last signals only resulted in an intra day bounce so I am not putting much faith in them yet. I did notice also that the TYX boucne off a weekly long term resistance line, I had a class 2 over bought as posted here Thursday and the reversal shows that it "COULD" drop as low as 5.95% before hitting the middle tine where the likely reversal would occur. Will the drop be due to improving economics or flight to safety I don't know. Many stocks are being destroyed and it is not being a predictable pattern in many cases. Note how LU looked like it was forming a base for weeks around the 63 area before dropping further. A few others held support up until Tuesday and Wednesday then waterfalled downward. Regardless, the P&F is littered with double bottom breaks, almost all stocks are in the bottom half of thier respective forks and I am not seeing high volume yet on most issues escept GE and a few select others I may actually have to agree with Matt on his baseball bat analogy in some cases as I saw both sound grandma companies and tech high flyers getting whacked around a bit so I will eat some crow on that one. Anyway, it is still early in teh weekend and one pass through the charts is not enough to make a call yet. Still It appears that we could bounce at least a little next week then we should resume to lower lows later since I really didn't see much support around this level on most issues or sectors. Good Luck, Lee