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To: Bipin Prasad who wrote (49320)	10/17/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: Land_Lubber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

It is interesting to observe that since about September 21, 1999, the SOX has traded about +/- 6% around a level of 530. On the other hand, you can also say that from September 15 to October 15, the SOX declined from 580 to 500. This pattern (both views taken together) is a form of "descending triangle." In the case of MU, however, it is harder to make a triangle out of it. It looks much more like a descending trend band from about September 15, with a descending slope of 5% per week, and a fairly wide width of +/- 9%. It is important to note that during this time, trading in MU sustained its HIGHEST total volume since late 1995 / early 1996. I conclude that MU has been performing, on average, worse than the SOX over the past month, and on exceptionally high volume. What is very SURPRISING is that this is occurring at a time when the news has not been better for MU in years, and the chorus of analyst upgrades and "reits" and sky-high stock price "targets" is especially strong. When this is taken in consideration with the fact that MU has put-in a price peak (at 85) during this same period (Sept 15 - Oct 15) that is unrivaled in the history of the company, but for a few hours in September 1995, this becomes very strong evidence that we are witnessing a long-term peak and major reversal in MU. The major reversals ALWAYS occur when the face-value news looks maximally opposite to what you would think would indicate the direction the stock will take. I.e., the news is always worst when an up-turn begins, and best when a down-turn begins. The reason for this is that the biggest players, whose volume trades drive the long-term price trends, look a quarter or two AHEAD to determine their strategy, not at today's news. Looking a quarter or two ahead we see a lot more DRAM supply coming on stream, vigorous Korean competition, sagging PC demand, and much of MU's current quarter earnings being soaked-up by debt service. So they sell high. The fact the the whole stock market looks like it is also embarked on a pretty serious downleg doesn't help either. My conclusion: MU stock price will trend down for the next few months. Comments? Land_Lubber