To: Ward Nicholson who wrote (1739 ) 10/17/1999 3:27:00 PM From: VisionsOfSugarplums Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Interesting reading on the links provided by you and Osprey.rambling here because I've never been through any sort of "crash", should one occur. With the increasing numbers of retail investors taking charge of their own accounts, and a large number of them only having invested/traded through a primarily bull market, high levels of consumer debt - it really makes you think about your preconceived (subconscious?) notions of how the market reacts and traditional support/resistance lines (for example, I can bring up 5 year charts on Stockwatch but is this the time frame I should be looking at or should I now be looking at a longer one? The last crash was in '87 - stocks didn't break 1929 levels <ggg> but it would be interesting to know where they found support, such as on the five year chart? Changes have been made since '87 in regulations, etc., which are supposed to "fix" some of the "causes" of the selloff in '87 and therefore maybe it is not an analagous year, however there appears to many similarities in market conditions and so perhaps it is. TRP is very close to it's four year low and appears to be finding support, but maybe that timeframe is no longer relevant since market conditions have changed compared to that time period. Oil and gas may be the safe sector but I see lots of oil and gas stocks that have pulled back 30% plus from their highs this year despite the fact that oil prices are at decade highs. Multiples to next year cash flows, around $20WTI, are under '97 levels. I know this is a bit simplistic, but is this attributable to the changing market ? - because a lot of people in Calgary are scratching their heads as to why these stock prices aren't higher).pa.net pigsnstuff.com
