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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hitesh puri who wrote (10090)	10/17/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: MMW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Thank god! I don't own any of NT, ERICY, and LU. May be I am old fashion when come to look at fundamental balance sheet. The only telecom equipment company I own is QCOM. It seems doing okay last two quarters: moneycentral.msn.com I guess it is not the same when you come to different management in the same business. The question is why I or you want to own a company with negative cash flow?

To: hitesh puri who wrote (10090)	10/17/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 21876

Back from a week in Geneva, some comments: 1. The bears are piling on, but it is a huge mistake. This quarter will be strong. The analysts on LU are a bit like the blind men and the elephant: everyone has a brother in law that works at LU - If he works at BCS, you think the sky is falling; if he works in Optical Systems, you think the company will grow 50% a year. I talked with about 20 LU contacts while in Geneva, and remain convinced that the quarter will be strong on revenues, earnings, balance sheet improvement and cash flow. LU customers also are telling a very bullish story. I didn't see Herb G. in Switzerland. 2. BCS is bitching and moaning like you wouldn't believe. Network Systems and Micro will get significant bonuses for FYend, while BCS will get zippo. Certainly the source for alot of the LU bashing going on. However, BCS is less than 25% of LU - 30% growth in carrier sales (65% of total) and 22% growth in Micro (10% of total) more than make up for the relatively weak 5% BCS growth. 3. There is a big reorg coming. All of the original employees vested their options on Oct. 1. LU will reduce its work force by 20K through early retirement and layoffs, to be announced in November. This is more than 14% of the total workforce (and probably 8% of total costs and expenses). The street should like this move, as long as it is handled smoothtly. 4. Few investors realize this, but NT now trades at a 20% P/E premium to LU, despite lower guidance for revenue and EPS growth. 36 times CY2000 earnings is a ridiculous price for LU, given the strength it has in optical, wireless, software, data, DSPs, opto-electronics, etc. And BTW, if LU's accounts receivable DSOs are so troubling at 92 days, what about NT's at 118, or ALA at 150, or ERICY at 180? 5. This quarter's action is exactly like the March quarter, when several bearish analysts made the call that LU would miss the quarter. If you recall, LU blew out the quarter by 5 cents, delivering 35% YoY growth. LU has very good visability, and will easily make the quarter. Ascend, optical, wireless, software, micro are all having blow out Q's. BTW, Class 5 switches are also having a great quarter (25% YoY growth) somewhat masked by the decline in Class 4 tandem switches. 6. Everyone, hang in there, it's always darkest before the dawn. Dawn comes about 7:00AM on October 26.

To: hitesh puri who wrote (10090)	10/17/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 21876

Hitesh, I think you're data is a bit off. Second CSCO will never have the employee count of a LU or ERICY since they are going after a different model which leverages outside integrators and consultants and third party software developers. As for optical - yes they are new to the game.... voice - I assume you mean traditional voice installations..but if you search the CSCO web sight you'll see that they currently have a half dozen or so carrier IP telephony installations in process. yes, based on routing technology which simplifies installation and installation time. One of the key benefits being argued. OG