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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (69168)	10/17/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: umbro	Respond to of 132070

Remarking on the A/D line is getting to be an old story, but if this is not a dive signal I don't know what it is. Looking at the McClellan Oscilator, the market is not quite over-sold. Could be another couple of down days before it hits a near-term (mabye) bottom. The OEX Put/Call Ratio likewise is not demonstrating any outright capitulation. Looks like the sell-off could run for another couple of days.

To: Tommaso who wrote (69168)	11/7/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 132070

Tommaso; I follow your post from time to time as I have you bookmarked & I justify taht if not so much for your wisdom as for the candid way you say what you do. I posted something on the A/D line myself not to long ago but forgot where, and it likely didn't make sense. I can try to express a perfectly valid idea and more often than not I mangle it into an incoherent abstract that resembles a fictional fantasy of poor taste. ----------------------------- Now about the A/D line.."forget it", no one knows the facts contained "in it" what I do know "about it" is that because of market factors it is doomed ( over time ) to under perform the major indexes. Consolidation of stocks, ( mergers and buy outs ) keep plucking many of the advancers right out of it, and leaving behind the dogs. I don't know of anyone who "adds up" all the companies who would be in the Advance part of the A/D if they had not wound up in the fold of some larger giant. Just look at how many companies MSFT & GE have bought up over the years, take all of the high flying companies who have gone up via road of additions , then add all those additions to the A side of the A/D line any time that company goes up. Well yes we could also add them to the D side when it goes down but what is or has been the longer term trend. The A/D may be useful "very short term" but taking it serious over a long term will produce a more negative out look than it can justify. ------------------------- The market will have serious problems when the baby boomers come of retirement age, "about 2008 - 2010". As the demographics will be such that the Gen X ( who will be outnumbered ) will still have to buy the stocks that the older Generation are going to try to use to maintain a life style. Coupled with the demographic problem is the "bond" problem and it just happens to fall due 2007-2011 the time for the 30yr cycle of high interest rates should fall about then. The old coupons sold late 70s and early 80s all mature and the "old money families" who count on the leverage afforded when they hold bonds issued at super high rates will manipulate rates back up come hook or crook before they swap out the old 30 yr coupons for new ones. Jim Ps The A/D anomally is also similar to the reason why the R2000 can't over time out run the major indexes..the good ones keep getting moved out of its' index, it's hamstrung much the same way the A is towards the D on the A/D line.