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To: gdichaz who wrote (8399)	10/17/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Cha2, << nothing to indicate a real world commercial introduction date for WCDMA in Japan or elsewhere either. That's why I asked for the basis for your statement on WCDMA >> I have actually seen nothing other than optimistic comments from NTT-DoCoMo execs (and their suppliers) continuously reinforcing the fact that they would launch WCDMA commercially (to heck with standards) Q1 2001 then backfill to standards when possible. They seem determined to be first to market and have certainly been a (the) driver of 3G. What do you think of Ericsson's new forecast for 3G subscribers? ericsson.com "We also see a significant change in growth projections when it comes to users of third-generation services," said Kurt Hellström, President of Ericsson. Ericsson now expects over 120 million third-generation service subscribers by the end of 2004, about 70 million more subscribers than previously forecast". My personal opinion is that it is overly optimistic and the figures quoted are more likely to occur in 2005. I hope I am wrong however since it all means Q revenue to supplement the cdma 2G/2.5G growth. - Eric -

To: gdichaz who wrote (8399)	10/17/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: Peter J Hudson	Respond to of 54805

Eric / gdichaz, I've enjoyed your discussion of 3G roll out. Wireless data is the next "tornado" for the wireless industry. I believe the introduction of 1XRTT, whether it is 2.5G or 3G, is far more significant than the intro. of 3XRTT or WCDMA. The data rates of 1XRTT have a huge market, mobile computing, waiting for wireless connectivity at wireline+ speeds. The incremental increases provided by 3XRTT will not have this pent up demand. The killer application for 3X rates are yet to be developed. The demand for 1X rates are here and now. In the U.S. the CDMA providers will have a lock on wireless mobile computing 1 year before the TDMA providers have any high data rate solution. Pete