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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (1372)	10/17/1999 5:48:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2103

Actually I am trying to look at action in SPX and OEX as affected by Individual issue options as opposed to just the index options. So the answer was appropriate.

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (1372)	10/17/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

Matt; The DVI don't miss for me, IF I stay with the plan here is the way I work it. 1 It is primary ( but no bet are made until it's confirmed by other indicators ) 2 Other indicators can all say what they want , I will never go against the DVI. ( I will sit it out ) 3 I only bet when the DVI tells me it's a bet and the VIX is also HIGH or LOW..I short when it's low , and go long when it's high. I hold or don't bet when it's mid stream but will close if the DVI says close as I just will not buck the DVI. ------------------- With that discipline I have not lost one single bet on the qqq. BUT I don't always do what I preach and I nibble at times when the DVI is ify, Last Tuesday it was 100% short across the board. It's ify now but still down a little for the NDX and SPX ..flat on the DIA..and XLF I do like the MAX PAIN..and find it a very good indicator, but the DVI must confirm it or I won't bet. I most like the MP close to EX date , AND the week after but the week after is based on the winners/losers of the options at the last expiration. No matter what the MP tells me if the DVI don't confirm it then I'm out. There are super forces at work in the currency markets that are almost always impossible to predict up front, huge swaps in the Trillions of dollars that drawf the stock market that we never see all done at a blink, but that action is often telescoped into the DVI as the movers and shakers of the world know ahead what they will hammer next & they buy both our stocks and then bonds when the dollar is cheap, then hammer some one else so the dollar goes up. When the buying starts it most often shows up in the DVI volume. Volume looked fair Friday but not real good except for the XLF , the DVI on XLF was down but not as bad as the XLF itself. and the volume in the stocks was 158% of normal, so it's close to a bottom unless something else upsets the market. I nibbled on the XLF right on the close, but will dump out if the dollar is down tomorrow morning again. I nibbled on the DIA too but will also dumb on any more weakness in the dollar. Right now my shorts are all closed and I'm long RTN.A ( bougt the 13th cost avg 19-7/8 ) they can call it at $30 other than the above few I'm in cash. Jim