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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (43198)	10/17/1999 7:05:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116754

And energy price surges would be FAR MORE destructive to Europe and Asia, both of which rely far more heavily upon imported oil than does the US.>>> And what you overlook is that USA is far more vulnerable to Asian goods inflation secondary to Oil rise than any other country on earth as we produce next to nothing (barely competitive cars excluding) in terms of finished goods... PS. Did you ever asked yourself why Cars inflation coincide with Asian recovery...Detroit would raise prices as quickly as they could..

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (43198)	10/17/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: m jensen	Respond to of 116754

Ron, the flip side being! >So I personally expect a rush of crude to be delivered in November-December as producers cheat to their hearts content and sell into the fear. I know I would be.< To sit back at current exports and allow those feeling a shortage to "step up to the well" so to speak and pay the price. Supply over Demand = higher price = less dilution = same effect as your scenario. Mike

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (43198)	10/17/1999 10:30:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116754

The United Arab Emirates, the fifth-biggest oil producer in OPEC, said the group won't abandon before the end of March self-imposed output cuts which have helped oil prices to more than double this year. Benchmark Brent crude oil has risen to $22.50 a barrel from less than $10 in December as 10 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and four other nations agreed to cut world oil output by a total of about 7 percent for one year, starting on April 1. The producers reaffirmed their commitment at a meeting in Vienna on Sept. 22. ``OPEC will discuss production cuts at its ministerial meeting in Vienna in March, and not now,' said the U.A.E. Oil Minister Obeid bin Seif al-Nasseri. ``Oil prices will improve in the remaining months of the year as demand picks up in the winter season,' he said. The U.A.E. official reaffirmed OPEC's commitment to output cuts after a volatile period in the international oil markets. Brent crude in London fell 6.3 percent on Oct. 8 on reports that the 10 members of OPEC that pledged the cuts pumped 23.33 million barrels a day last month, 90,000 more than a month earlier, a Bloomberg survey said. According to the survey, OPEC made 92 percent of its promised oil output cuts in September, down from a revised 94 percent in August. The UAE made 100 percent of its promised cuts in September. Oil producers are reluctant to relieve production cuts before removing a global oil glut that caused prices to hit a 12- year low in December, Qatar's oil minister said. ``The world's oil reserves are still on the high side, and constitute a threat to prices,' said Abdullah bin Hamad al- Attiyah. ``If the present trend continues, then reserves will witness a considerable drop over the next five months,' he said. The American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday that U.S. oil supplies fell 7.14 million barrels to 298.94 million barrels the previous week, the lowest level since September 1997. The drop included a 6 million-barrel decline in the Gulf Coast region, the nation's oil refining heartland. The oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, Iran, the U.A.E., and Qatar are expected to meet in Tehran next month to review oil output policy and compliance levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ¸ Copyright 1999, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved. quote.bloomberg.com