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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (5174)	10/17/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

My gestalt feeling is that this stock has already seen the worst (or at least most of it). Gary, I agree. That's why I essentially averaged down on Friday, after much patience. What's your feeling on the overall market direction over the next month? Are you with the masses in expecting a single, big capitulation day, perhaps as early as tomorrow? My personal feeling is that indexes, especially the NAZ 100 is still bloated beyond rational valuations. We shall see soon enough. Gary

To: Gary Korn who wrote (5174)	10/17/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10027

<<My gestalt feeling is that this stock has already seen the worst (or at least most of it).>> LOL! After declining from 82 to 22 almost 75%, I sure hope the stock has "already seen the worst". Indeed it is not mathematically possible to duplicate such a decline again - only 25% of the value of the stock from the high remains! Since by the simple laws of arithmetic it is not possible for the stock to still see its "worst" days ahead of it, I don't think anyone is still counting on NITE declining appreciably from here - my God, after losing some 60 points, there are only 22 left to ZERO. No, the question is very different: how long will it take for NITE to reach its former high of 81 5/8 - in other words, how long will it take to make whole the last investor who bought at the high? Some stocks, like f.ex. MSFT - don't go very long before taking out their all-time highs. Others take very long, and others still, never reach and surpass them. My bet is NITE will rise, but the rise will be slow, tortuously slow. Sure there will be enthusiastic rah-rah new owners like gbh (Gary), but I suspect they'll have to wait for many current holders to cash out as NITE crawls up past various break-even points. But yes, the "worst" can scarcely be still ahead of NITE - ZERO is the most resilient support level known to a stock, and NITE is only 22 points away from it. Morgan