To: Tony Viola who wrote (90511 ) 10/18/1999 12:49:00 AM From: puborectalis Respond to of 186894
Calmer Monday? Dawn Patrol October 18, 1999 by Loren Fox Monday looks to be a bit calmer for technology shares, after the debacle that was Friday, when the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 2.7 percent. Investor psychology is somewhat depressed, but tech stocks will try to rebound. But many traders will see Monday as a wait-and-see day, as they wait for bigger news Tuesday: on Tuesday, the government releases an important inflation report and software behemoth Microsoft Corp. reports fiscal first-quarter earnings. Interest rates continue to play a large role in the psychology of the stock market. The benchmark 30-year Treasury bond, which is a proxy for interest rates, ended Friday night at 6.26 percent. That's below Friday morning's level, but still above the key 6.25-percent mark. With the big question being whether the Federal Reserve Board will hike short-term interest rates, Monday is free of economic reports. Wall Street is looking to Tuesday morning's release of the monthly consumer price index, the widely watched measure of retail prices. Economists expect the report to show the CPI rose 0.4 percent in September. Silver Lining? Sure, tech stocks are stumbling over the current anxiety about interest rates. But at least one fund manager feels it's nothing to blow out of proportion. "We're having a correction. We have very high absolute multiples [of price-to-earnings]," says Walter Price, co-manager of the Dresdner RCM Global Technology Fund. "I don't think it's a bear market." Price tells UpsideToday that the Federal Reserve Board probably needs to hike interest rates again to head off any inflation and maintain the bull market. "Hopefully, the Fed raises rates one more time and that's enough to slow down the economy and inflation," he says. At this point, the stock market is probably assuming a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting. And that's not so bad for tech. "Tech does pretty well in the year after a Fed tightening," Price explains. And in a slower-growing economy, tech stocks still offer relatively robust growth. Besides rates, Price's only other worry now is that Y2K-related spending slowdowns may be more severe than he expects. What does he expect? Not much pain. Says Price, "We think 2000 looks like a pretty good year for hardware spending and semiconductors." Company Happenings: After Friday's markets closed, Storage Technology (STK) said it hired investment bank Goldman Sachs and consulting firm McKinsey & Co. to evaluate its strategic options, such as selling the company. The computer storage company's stock has fallen by about half so far this year. Local phone giant SBC Communications (SBC) is expected to unveil its data and broadband access strategy to analysts Monday, according to press reports. The strategy reportedly includes a multi-billion dollar plan to upgrade its equipment. Among the tech companies slated to report quarterly earnings Monday is imaging company Xerox Corp. (XRX), which reports its third quarter; analysts expect earnings of 47 cents a share. Computer printer maker Lexmark (LXK) reports its third quarter, and analysts see profits of 54 cents a share. And wireless communications company Nextel Communications (NXTL) reports its third quarter; analysts expect a loss of $1.10 a share. IPO Patrol: Another week brings another batch of tech-related initial public offerings. The hottest tech deal expected some time this week might be Sycamore Networks (SCMR), a maker of optical networking equipment that is expected to price its shares at $18 to $20 each. Also, NaviSite (NAVI), a Web site hosting company that is majority-owned by CMGI, is expected to price at $10 to $12 a share. And Aether Systems (AETH), a provider of wireless communications services and software, is seen pricing its IPO at $13 to $15. Friday's hot IPO was Women.com (WOMN), an online network for women whose backers include Hearst Corp. The deal priced at $10 a share, and it rose 85 percent in its first day of trading to close at $18.50. Loren Fox is finance editor at Upside Media. Printable Version Free Dawn Patrol E-mail: UPSIDE Forums: When will the Bubble Burst? Predict the great crash at Upside Today.com Forums. more Dawn Patrol Calmer Monday? -- Tech tries to recover before big Tuesday.... October 18, 1999 Volatility Ahead -- Rate worries weigh on tech stocks.... October 15, 1999 Tech Looks Sluggish -- Earnings, rates both hurt tech psychology.... October 14, 1999 Intel Downside -- Intel's earnings disappointment will weigh on tech.... October 13, 1999 more ... Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 10019.71 -266.90 S&P 500 1247.41 -36.01 NYSE Composite 576.17 -15.16 AMEX Composite 777.00 -8.95 NASDAQ Composite 2731.83 -75.01 Russell 2000 414.70 -4.61 30-year Treasury Bond 6.26 -0.06 last updated 10/15/1999 15:00 Quotes are delayed at least 20 mins. Most Actives (15 most actively traded stocks on the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX) Gainers (15 biggest winners on the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX) Losers (15 biggest losers on the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX) Upgrades/Downgrades Internet 383.34 -15.09 Telecom Equipment 1030.83 -39.23 Computer Hardware 871.77 -17.70 Computer Networks 1101.64 -30.51 Computer Peripherals 871.17 -18.44 Computer Services 1633.69 -30.75 Computer Storage Devices 406.72 -4.63 Semiconductors 758.88 -1.27 Software & Programming 914.30 -21.85 Broadcasting & Cable TV 1262.97 -30.32 last updated 10/15/1999 14:56 Financial Info STK quotes ratings SBC quotes ratings XRX quotes ratings LXK quotes ratings NXTL quotes ratings WOMN quotes ratings