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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (32854)	10/18/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

what risk do you think there is in AMAT today? Risk can be divided into 3 kinds: in the stock, sector, and market: 1. Stock risk. None. AMAT has gained market share during the last downturn, and is even further ahead of its rivals. 2. Sector risk. Almost none. The current upturn will probably last at least into 2001, maybe even 2003. I don't think I need to start closely following semi inventory levels and ASPs till then. 3. Market risk. Lots. This is what the thread should be discussing, because here is where the risk is in the stock, today. I'll make a very specific prediction: As long as: 1. the yield on 10 year Treasuries is over 6% 2. the Fed has a tightening bias 3. we keep getting warning signs of impending inflation then the S&P 500 will not set new highs. We could, possibly, have one more blow-off rally in high techs, but I don't think the Nasdaq 100 can go more than 5% above the highs set October 11, or hold the gains, as long as the 3 conditions above exist. As long as those conditions exist, I think it is prudent to hedge downside market risk. If they change, then I'll change my opinion, and sell my puts.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (32854)	10/18/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Japan's Average PC Sales Price Falls Below US$1,870 October 18, 1999 (TOKYO) -- The average PC sales price at major PC volume retailers in Japan declined below 200,000 yen (about US$1,870 at 106.98 yen = US$1) in the third week of September, according to GfK Japan Ltd. It was the first time that the average sales price dropped below 200,000 yen since GfK started its PC price survey. According to GfK Japan, PC sales at about 2,000 outlets for household electric appliances during the third week of September (Sept. 20-26, 1999), increased 8.3 percent in units and 5.3 percent in value, compared with sales in the previous week. Also, such PC sales increased 58.0 percent in terms of units and 38.8 percent in value compared with those during the same week in the previous year (Sept. 21-27, 1998). Sales continued to be strong. GfK Japan is an information service company handling POS data for 55 volume retailers of consumer electric appliances. The downward spiral trend in prices continued, and as a result, the average sales price dropped from 204,358 yen in the previous week to 198,595 yen. A factor that pushed down the average sales price was the popularity of low-priced desktop/tower PCs of around 100,000 yen. Although it appeared that the average price had hit the bottom in the second week of September, the week-on-week price difference widened to 7,840 yen. While the average sales price had a record low of 166,021 yen, the fact that the growth compared with the previous week rose to a double-digit figure in terms of units for the first time in 11 weeks (since the first week of July) pushed down the average sales price. GfK Japan collects POS data from 55 IT-related retail sales companies centering on high-volume stores specializing in home electric appliances. It covers about 3,200 stores (as of April 1998) throughout Japan. In cooperation with GfK Japan, Nikkei Market Access provides weekly reports of PC sales in volume and value. The sales data has been based on the same 41 companies (with about 2,000 stores) since April 1996. The number of PCs sold at the 2,000 stores is estimated to comprise about 10 percent of gross domestic shipments, and when limiting the sales to retail sales channel, the share comes to about 25 percent of such shipments.